Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 11, 2006Crawford County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 11, 2006, 8:51 PM CST for Crawford County, Arkansas. It was in force for 54 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 11, 2006, 8:51 PM CST (02:51 UTC)
Expired: Mar 11, 2006, 9:45 PM CST
In force: 54 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Crawford County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 11, 6:49 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 291 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 3397 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 72 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 47 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 131 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 120250
SVRTSA
ARC033-120345-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0071.060312T0251Z-060312T0345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
851 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 945 PM CST

* AT 848 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
  TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALMA...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...ALMA...RUDY...
  DYER...MOUNTAINBURG AND CHESTER.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3545 9439 3537 9413 3574 9394 3576 9422

$$

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 120300
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
900 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ARC033-120345-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-060312T0345Z/
CRAWFORD AR-
900 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 945 PM CST FOR
CRAWFORD COUNTY...

AT 856 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF SHIBLEY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SHIBLEY...
KIBLER...FURRY...CONCORD...ALMA...RUDY...DYER...MOUNTAINBURG...
CHESTER...LOCKE...MOUNT GAYLER AND BIDVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. IF NO 
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE TAKE COVER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN 
AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

LAT...LON 3545 9439 3537 9413 3574 9394 3576 9422

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 120344
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
944 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ARC033-120354-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-060312T0345Z/
CRAWFORD AR-
944 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CRAWFORD COUNTY EXPIRES AT 945
PM CST...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM.

LAT...LON 3545 9439 3537 9413 3574 9394 3576 9422

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 11, 7:31 PM CST, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 11, 7:31 PM CST, 1 hour 20 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
731 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AN UPDATED SET OF FORECAST PRODUCTS ADJUSTING POPS AND UPDATING
WATCH INFORMATION. MADE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BUT
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 15
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 1

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 11, 11:27 AM CST, 9 hours 24 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1127 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1126 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA....EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER NOON.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EAST OF A MIAMI TO MCALESTER LINE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER NOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 75.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED...SPREADINDEX=49.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED FROM OSAGE COUNTY DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING. THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING TO
THE EAST AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE...FIRE DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN AS WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMBINE WITH DRY VEGETATION.
TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE CAPES ALONG THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS  INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MORE THAN
ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR WILL POWER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY RISK...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE EVEN GREATER ON SUNDAY THAN TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE P

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 11, 6:59 PM CST, 1 hour 52 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
659 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ARZ002-011-120145-
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
659 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CARROLL AND NORTHERN MADISON

AT 659 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
WEST OF HARMONY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OAK GROVE...HARMONY...OAK
HILL...PLEASANT RIDGE...BERRYVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS...CABANAL...
URBANETTE...GRANDVIEW...FORUM...ALABAM...CLIFTY AND ROCKHOUSE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

Special weather statement, Mar 11, 8:11 PM CST, 40 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
811 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ARZ019-120300-
CRAWFORD AR-
811 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD

AT 811 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF UNIONTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...UNIONTOWN...
CEDARVILLE...NATURAL DAM...CHESTER...LEE CREEK AND MOUNT GAYLER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

Special weather statement, Mar 11, 8:12 PM CST, 39 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
812 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

OKZ076-120300-
LE FLORE OK-
812 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     LE FLORE

AT 812 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WISTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...POTEAU...BIG CEDAR...MUSE...
WHITESBORO...HODGEN...SUMMERFIELD...HEAVENER...FANSHAWE...HOWE...
WISTER...SHADY POINT...CAMERON...MILTON...PANAMA...BOKOSHE...ROCK
ISLAND...SPIRO...POCOLA...SCULLYVILLE AND BRADEN.

ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WHITESBORO.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

Special weather statement, Mar 11, 8:25 PM CST, 26 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
825 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ARZ010-120315-
WASHINGTON AR-
825 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     WASHINGTON

AT 825 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BLACKBURN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WALNUT GROVE...HICKS...
SHADY GROVE...TUTTLE...MAYFIELD...FAYETTEVILLE...WINSLOW...WEST
FORK...PRAIRIE GROVE...ELKINS...FARMINGTON...BLACKBURN...HOGEYE...
STRICKLER...BRENTWOOD...WOOLSEY...WYOLA...ARNETT...DURHAM...SULPHUR
CITY...BLACK OAK...GREENLAND...VINEY GROVE...GOSHEN...WHEELER...
JOHNSON AND SONORA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

Special weather statement, Mar 11, 8:32 PM CST, 19 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
832 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ARZ029-120315-
SEBASTIAN AR-
832 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SEBASTIAN

AT 832 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF JENSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CROSSROADS...MILLTOWN...
URSULA...HARTFORD...HACKETT...GREENWOOD...BARLING...LAVACA...
ARKOLA...HUNTINGTON...MIDLAND...DAYTON...WITCHERVILLE...BURNVILLE...
JENSON...EXCELSIOR...BONANZA...JENNY LIND...RYE HILL...BLOOMER AND
CENTRAL CITY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

Local storm report, Mar 11, 8:45 PM CST, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
845 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             ROCK ISLAND             35.18N 94.47W
03/11/2006  E1.00 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

FSP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 11, 7:22 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll	31 min
Mar 11, 8:33 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Sebastian	57 min
Mar 11, 8:37 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison, Washington	53 min
Mar 11, 9:14 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin	76 min
Mar 11, 9:26 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Franklin	64 min
Mar 11, 9:31 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll, Madison	44 min
Mar 11, 9:36 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Sebastian	51 min
Mar 11, 10:06 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll, Madison	35 min
Mar 11, 10:25 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Franklin	51 min
Mar 12, 12:13 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Washington	62 min
Mar 12, 12:59 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton	31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.