Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 11, 2006Mayes County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 11, 2006, 4:45 PM CST for Mayes County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 45 min. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Mar 11, 2006, 4:45 PM CST (22:45 UTC)
Expired: Mar 11, 2006, 5:30 PM CST
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Mayes County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 28 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Mar 11, 4:46 PM CST	HAIL 0.75	Chouteau, OK
Mar 11, 5:05 PM CST	HAIL 0.75	Salina, OK
Mar 11, 5:18 PM CST	HAIL 0.88	Pensacola, OK	HAIL COVERED THE GROUND

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 11, 12:47 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 150 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 107 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -189 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1474 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 63 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 183 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 120 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 112245
SVRTSA
OKC097-112330-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0064.060311T2245Z-060311T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
445 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  MAYES COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 530 PM CST

* AT 442 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
  TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHOUTEAU...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHOUTEAU...
  PRYOR...LOCUST GROVE...SALINA...ROSE...ADAIR...PENSACOLA...SPAVINAW
  AND LANGLEY.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3620 9545 3608 9538 3621 9503 3650 9501
      3644 9537

$$

1 follow-up statement

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 112325
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
525 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

OKC097-112335-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-060311T2330Z/
MAYES OK-
525 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MAYES COUNTY EXPIRES AT 530 PM
CST...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

LAT...LON 3620 9545 3608 9538 3621 9503 3650 9501
      3644 9537

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 11, 4:36 PM CST, 9 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 11, 4:36 PM CST, 9 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
436 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRIDS SHOW A MODERATE CAP REMAINS AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...BUT WITH LOCALLY WEAK AREAS THAT APPEAR BREAKABLE FROM
ROGERS COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD.

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GRIDS SHOW A PERSISTANT AREA OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE IN SOUTHERN CREEK AND OKFUSKEE
COUNTIES WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRY LINE IN GENERAL.

STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY CALCULATIONS ARE AT THE MOMENT EXTREMELY
SENSATIVE TO THE STORM MOTION...RESULTING IN A RANGE FROM NEGATIVE
TO POSITVE WITH THE LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWING THE STORMS NORTHEAST
OF TULSA WITH ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS.

THE DRY LINE IS STILL SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST..BUT VERY SLOWLY...SO
IT IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 1
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 1

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 11, 11:27 AM CST, 5 hours 18 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1127 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1126 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA....EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER NOON.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EAST OF A MIAMI TO MCALESTER LINE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER NOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 75.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED...SPREADINDEX=49.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED FROM OSAGE COUNTY DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING. THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING TO
THE EAST AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE...FIRE DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN AS WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMBINE WITH DRY VEGETATION.
TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE CAPES ALONG THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS  INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MORE THAN
ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR WILL POWER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY RISK...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE EVEN GREATER ON SUNDAY THAN TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE P

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 11, 3:05 PM CST, 1 hour 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             5 W WATTS               36.11N 94.66W
03/11/2006  E0.75 INCH       ADAIR              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

0302 PM     HAIL             SILOAM SPRINGS          36.19N 94.54W
03/11/2006  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             AR   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

FSP

Special weather statement, Mar 11, 3:46 PM CST, 59 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

OKZ063-112215-
DELAWARE OK-
346 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     DELAWARE

AT 346 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CHLOETA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHLOETA...ZENA AND GROVE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

Special weather statement, Mar 11, 4:00 PM CST, 45 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

OKZ062-112230-
MAYES OK-
400 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MAYES

AT 400 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MAZIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PRYOR...MAZIE...MURPHY...CHOUTEAU...
LOCUST GROVE...SALINA...SPAVINAW...STRANG...PENSACOLA AND LANGLEY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

Local storm report, Mar 11, 4:11 PM CST, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
411 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             GATEWAY                 36.49N 93.93W
03/11/2006  E1.75 INCH       BENTON             AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

FSP

Local storm report, Mar 11, 4:18 PM CST, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
418 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     HAIL             1 W SALINA              36.29N 95.17W
03/11/2006  E1.75 INCH       MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

FSP

Special weather statement, Mar 11, 4:23 PM CST, 22 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

OKZ067-112300-
WAGONER OK-
423 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WAGONER

AT 423 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
EAST OF COWETA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WAGONER...PORTER...OKAY...
REDBIRD...COWETA AND ONETA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 10, 8:05 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Okfuskee	30 min
Mar 10, 8:45 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Wagoner	32 min
Mar 10, 9:01 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Mayes, Rogers	30 min
Mar 10, 9:54 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Pittsburg	66 min
Mar 10, 10:22 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Pushmataha	53 min
Mar 10, 10:35 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Latimer, Pittsburg	55 min
Mar 10, 11:00 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Latimer	45 min
Mar 10, 11:05 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell	55 min
Mar 10, 11:14 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Pushmataha	46 min
Mar 10, 11:17 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore	73 min
Mar 10, 11:47 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Pushmataha	58 min
Mar 10, 11:58 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Pushmataha	30 min
Mar 11, 12:29 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore	46 min
Mar 11, 1:33 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore	42 min
Mar 11, 12:39 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Okmulgee	51 min
Mar 11, 12:57 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Okfuskee	14 min
Mar 11, 1:02 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Muskogee	58 min
Mar 11, 2:16 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee	44 min
Mar 11, 2:32 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair	41 min
Mar 11, 4:15 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Mayes	30 min
Mar 11, 4:20 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Delaware	55 min
Mar 11, 4:46 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Mayes	44 min
Mar 11, 5:11 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Delaware	39 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.