Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 111909
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
109 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

OKC091-111-111930-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-060311T1930Z/
OKMULGEE OK-MCINTOSH OK-
109 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 130 PM CST FOR
MCINTOSH AND OKMULGEE COUNTIES...

AT 108 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTH OF HITCHITA TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF DEWAR...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...ERAM...PIERCE...
HITCHITA...COUNCIL HILL AND RENTIESVILLE.

LAT...LON 3539 9602 3525 9596 3551 9547 3571 9575

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 111930
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

OKC091-111-111940-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-060311T1930Z/
OKMULGEE OK-MCINTOSH OK-
130 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MCINTOSH AND OKMULGEE COUNTIES
EXPIRES AT 130 PM CST...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE 
WITH THIS STORM ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MCINTOSH COUNTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

LAT...LON 3539 9602 3525 9596 3551 9547 3571 9575

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE NEAR THE DRY LINE THAT EXTENDS
FROM NEAR PONCA CITY TO OKLAHOMA CITY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO ERODE EAST OF THE DRY LINE. ADDITIONAL LIFT
WILL BE PROVIDED BY A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE
VALUES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH LI VALUES OF AROUND -5.
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 80 MPH WITH
SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1127 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1126 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA....EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER NOON.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EAST OF A MIAMI TO MCALESTER LINE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER NOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 75.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED...SPREADINDEX=49.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED FROM OSAGE COUNTY DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING. THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING TO
THE EAST AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE...FIRE DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN AS WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMBINE WITH DRY VEGETATION.
TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE CAPES ALONG THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS  INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MORE THAN
ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR WILL POWER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY RISK...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY NEEDED...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE EVEN GREATER ON SUNDAY THAN TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE P

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     HAIL             8 W EUBANKS             34.42N 95.73W
03/10/2006  E1.00 INCH       PUSHMATAHA         OK   PUBLIC

1052 PM     HAIL             MOYERS                  34.33N 95.65W
03/10/2006  E0.88 INCH       PUSHMATAHA         OK   PUBLIC

&&

NMK