Severe Thunderstorm Warning 414, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 152312
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

OKC135-152322-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0414.000000T0000Z-060815T2315Z/
SEQUOYAH OK-
612 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SEQUOYAH COUNTY EXPIRES AT 615
PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3554 9514 3543 9503 3565 9473 3565 9512

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC FRONT IS VERY HARD TO FIND AT THIS POINT...BUT SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY STRETCHING
ACROSS FAR SE OKLAHOMA...AND ALONG ANOTHER SITUATED FROM NEAR MKO
TO FYV. OVERALL ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED...
BUT STILL A LIMITED GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH STRONGER CELLS.

UNLIKE LAST NIGHT NO WELL DEFINED UPPER AIR FEATURES WILL BE
PRESENT...BUT SOME DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-40. AGAIN...EXPECT LESS
ORGANIZATION COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT BUT STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF
STORMS OVER ABOUT THE NORTH 2/3 OF CWA TONIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REGAIN STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE LATE PART OF THIS WEEK...MEANING THAT THE HEAT WILL BE
ON ONCE AGAIN. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD END AFTER WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WRF 850 TEMPS BY WEEKS END SUGGEST A MAJOR WARM UP COULD BE IN
STORE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN PROGGED SFC TEMPS...GFS IS A LITTLE
COOLER BUT STILL SUPPORTS TEMPS OVER 100 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
THU/FRI. SWATH OF 1-2 INCH RAINFALL FROM NORTHERN CREEK THROUGH
ROGERS COUNTY IN NE OK WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
FULL POTENTIAL. EXCESSIVE HEAT HEADLINES MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED
AND WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL VERY CLOSELY IN
AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INCLUDING ENSEMBLE GFS CONTINUE TO SAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO NORTHERN OK/AR BY ABOUT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL GO AHEAD
AND INTRODUCE LOW POPS IN THE NORTH BEGINNING SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WILL ALSO INDICATE A MODEST COOLING TREND AND IF THIS
FRONT CAN PUSH FARTHER SOUTH WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT IS PROBABLY WISHFUL THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  98  77 100 /  40  20  10  10
FSM   72 101  74 102 /  30  10   0  10
MLC   76 103  77 104 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   68  99  71 101 /  50  30  10  10
FYV   68  93  67  95 /  30  10   0  10
BYV   66  93  67  96 /  20  10   0  10
MKO   72  98  73 101 /  30  10  10  10
MIO   69  97  73 100 /  20  20  10  10
F10   75 100  76 101 /  30  10  10  10
HHW   77 104  78 104 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 18
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
103 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1238 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MAINLY EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON .

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED...SPREADINDEX=38.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE RED RIVER AND IS SLOWLY WASHING OUT. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING OUTFLOW WINDS
OF AROUND 60 MPH. TEMPERATURE AT MID DAY WILL IN THE UPPER 90S IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AND HUMIDITY IS THE LOWEST.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR
THE RED RIVER CONTINUES TO WASH OUT.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT...THE HEAT WILL RETURN AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE HOT
WEATHER WILL MOST LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
447 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E LINCOLN             35.95N 94.39W
08/15/2006                   WASHINGTON         AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS ROAD

0436 PM     HAIL             HACKETT                 35.19N 94.41W
08/15/2006  E0.88 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

ARZ020-152300-
FRANKLIN AR-
500 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     FRANKLIN

AT 500 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CASS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PARADISE...TAFT...JETHRO...
MOUNTAIN TOP...BARNES...TURNERS BEND...CASS AND REDDING.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
503 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

ARZ019-152300-
CRAWFORD AR-
503 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD

AT 503 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES
SOUTH OF KIBLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CONCORD...MOUNTAINBURG...VAN
BUREN...ALMA...KIBLER...SHIBLEY...FURRY...DYER AND RUDY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
514 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

OKZ064-152315-
CREEK OK-
514 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CREEK

AT 514 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTH OF KELLYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...KIEFER...KELLYVILLE AND
SAPULPA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
519 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

OKZ060-067-152300-
TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
519 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN TULSA AND WESTERN WAGONER

AT 519 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LEONARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LEONARD...BIXBY...BROKEN ARROW...
STONEBLUFF...COWETA AND ONETA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
527 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

OKZ068-072-152300-
CHEROKEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
530 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN CHEROKEE AND WESTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 527 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES
SOUTH OF GORE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THIS THUNDERSTORM...AND ARE PROGRESSING TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE STRONG WINDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN SEQUOYAH
COUNTY...AND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY.  SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE OUTFLOW WINDS
INCLUDE...VIAN...GORE AND BOX.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.