Severe Thunderstorm Warning 411, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC FRONT IS VERY HARD TO FIND AT THIS POINT...BUT SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY STRETCHING
ACROSS FAR SE OKLAHOMA...AND ALONG ANOTHER SITUATED FROM NEAR MKO
TO FYV. OVERALL ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED...
BUT STILL A LIMITED GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH STRONGER CELLS.

UNLIKE LAST NIGHT NO WELL DEFINED UPPER AIR FEATURES WILL BE
PRESENT...BUT SOME DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-40. AGAIN...EXPECT LESS
ORGANIZATION COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT BUT STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF
STORMS OVER ABOUT THE NORTH 2/3 OF CWA TONIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REGAIN STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE LATE PART OF THIS WEEK...MEANING THAT THE HEAT WILL BE
ON ONCE AGAIN. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD END AFTER WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
WRF 850 TEMPS BY WEEKS END SUGGEST A MAJOR WARM UP COULD BE IN
STORE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN PROGGED SFC TEMPS...GFS IS A LITTLE
COOLER BUT STILL SUPPORTS TEMPS OVER 100 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
THU/FRI. SWATH OF 1-2 INCH RAINFALL FROM NORTHERN CREEK THROUGH
ROGERS COUNTY IN NE OK WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
FULL POTENTIAL. EXCESSIVE HEAT HEADLINES MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED
AND WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL VERY CLOSELY IN
AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INCLUDING ENSEMBLE GFS CONTINUE TO SAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO NORTHERN OK/AR BY ABOUT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL GO AHEAD
AND INTRODUCE LOW POPS IN THE NORTH BEGINNING SAT NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WILL ALSO INDICATE A MODEST COOLING TREND AND IF THIS
FRONT CAN PUSH FARTHER SOUTH WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT IS PROBABLY WISHFUL THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  98  77 100 /  40  20  10  10
FSM   72 101  74 102 /  30  10   0  10
MLC   76 103  77 104 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   68  99  71 101 /  50  30  10  10
FYV   68  93  67  95 /  30  10   0  10
BYV   66  93  67  96 /  20  10   0  10
MKO   72  98  73 101 /  30  10  10  10
MIO   69  97  73 100 /  20  20  10  10
F10   75 100  76 101 /  30  10  10  10
HHW   77 104  78 104 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 18
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
103 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1238 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MAINLY EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON .

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED...SPREADINDEX=38.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE RED RIVER AND IS SLOWLY WASHING OUT. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING OUTFLOW WINDS
OF AROUND 60 MPH. TEMPERATURE AT MID DAY WILL IN THE UPPER 90S IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AND HUMIDITY IS THE LOWEST.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR
THE RED RIVER CONTINUES TO WASH OUT.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT...THE HEAT WILL RETURN AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE HOT
WEATHER WILL MOST LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
236 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

OKZ068-069-152015-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-
236 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     ADAIR

AT 236 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTH OF ELDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BARON...CHRISTIE...PROCTOR AND
ELDON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

ARZ010-152100-
WASHINGTON AR-
312 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     WASHINGTON

AT 312 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WALNUT GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WALNUT GROVE...SHADY GROVE...
TUTTLE...FAYETTEVILLE...PRAIRIE GROVE...ELKINS...FARMINGTON...
HOGEYE...SULPHUR CITY...BLACK OAK...GREENLAND...VINEY GROVE...
GOSHEN...WHEELER...JOHNSON AND SONORA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
326 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

ARZ029-152115-
SEBASTIAN AR-
326 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN SEBASTIAN

AT 326 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LIBERTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LIBERTY...CROSSROADS...
ARKOLA...HUNTINGTON...DAYTON...WITCHERVILLE AND MANSFIELD.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW BOYNTON            35.68N 95.69W
08/14/2006                   MUSKOGEE           OK   PUBLIC

            8-12 INCH TREE LIMB BLOWN DOWN ACROSS ROAD

&&

SAA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

ARZ001-010-011-OKZ063-068-069-152145-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CHEROKEE OK-DELAWARE OK-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
346 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     BENTON...MADISON AND WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     DELAWARE AND ADAIR

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CHEROKEE

AT 346 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TAHLEQUAH TO
JAPTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF BENTON...MADISON...WASHINGTON...DELAWARE...
CHEROKEE AND ADAIR COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH
445 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

OKZ076-152130-
LE FLORE OK-
356 PM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     LE FLORE

AT 356 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
SOUTH OF CAMERON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CAMERON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.