Severe Thunderstorm Warning 406, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
909 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

.UPDATE...
BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM NEAR ENID EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AR NEAR FORT SMITH. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST...WELL NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THAT APPEARS TO
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN OK. HAVE SEEN A MARKED DECREASE IN INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEGUN TO
COOL...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME 40-50 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DESPITE THE
WEAKENING INSTABILITY...MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWARD MOVING UPPER SYSTEM OVER WRN TX COULD
KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION GOING MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

GOING POPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...BUT HAVE DECREASED POPS NEAR THE
RED RIVER...WITH BEST CHANCE POPS REMAINING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUR AROUND 920 PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 248 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006)

DISCUSSION...
POPS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PRESENTLY FROM ABOUT A MIAMI TO PAWNEE LINE SAGS ACROSS PART OF THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHERN KANSAS STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING REMAINS PRESENT
SOMEWHERE NEAR I-40. A FEW STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THESE
TWO FEATURES AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON THROUGH THE EVENING. MODIFIED
MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP INVERTED-V STRUCTURE AND A FEW
STRONG OR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS SEEM LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH BETTER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

MEANWHILE A WELL DEFINED MCV CLEARLY SEEN ON VIS SATELLITE NEAR
ABILENE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO LIFT THIS FEATURE ALMOST DUE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
SHEAR IT APART AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NW
OKLAHOMA. THIS FEATURE COULD SERVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG
FRONT SHOULD IT MAINTAIN ITSELF LONG ENOUGH AND WILL THUS KEEP
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT MOST AREAS.

FRONTAL POSITION AND POSSIBLE ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY MAKE FOR
TRICKY TEMP FORECAST TUESDAY. BOTH WRF/GFS FROM 12Z SUGGEST FRONT
WILL NOT CLEAR SE OKLAHOMA AND GIVEN UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND TIME
OF YEAR THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE...BUT IF CONVECTION BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD OUTFLOW COULD PUSH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE STUCK WITH
IDEA OF GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPS WITH FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AGAIN
TOPPING 100.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP QUICKLY MIDWEEK AS FRONT WASHES OUT AND BRINGS
MORE HOT WEATHER. AGAIN HAVE GONE WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPS
THROUGH THE LATER PERIODS. STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH BY THE WEEKEND...BUT
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT HOT AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 18
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 7

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
415 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
415 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
        ALL NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
 	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS HAS PRODUCED
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
LOCATED FROM NEAR FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS TO OKMULGEE OKLAHOMA.  THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
DOWNBURST WINDS OF 70 MPH.  CONDITIONS SUPPORTING THIS TYPE OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE COMMON ACROSS ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100 TO 105 OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN FOR ANY REQUIRED
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE SHORT LIVED NATURE OF
ANY SEVERE THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT MORE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOST UNSTABLE. STORMS THAT FORM WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS BUT MOST WILL REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN EXPERIENCING AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
844 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

OKZ074-150230-
HASKELL OK-
844 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN HASKELL

AT 844 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES WEST OF MC CURTAIN...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MC CURTAIN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

ARZ029-OKZ076-150245-
LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-
902 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN LE FLORE

AT 902 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CAMERON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CAMERON...ROCK ISLAND...POCOLA...
SCULLYVILLE...BRADEN...ARKOMA...MILL CREEK...FORT SMITH...HACKETT...
GREENWOOD...BARLING...JENSON...EXCELSIOR...BONANZA...JENNY LIND AND
RYE HILL.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

OKZ064-150330-
CREEK OK-
945 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN CREEK

AT 945 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILFAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MILFAY...
DEPEW AND SHAMROCK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1027 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

OKZ054-059-060-064-150415-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-TULSA OK-
1027 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OSAGE...EASTERN PAWNEE...WESTERN TULSA AND EASTERN
     CREEK

AT 1027 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANNFORD TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
BRISTOW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...GRAY...OSAGE...SAND SPRINGS...
CLEVELAND...WESTPORT...BRISTOW...KIEFER...MANNFORD...KELLYVILLE AND
SAPULPA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1032 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

OKZ068-069-150415-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-
1032 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN ADAIR

AT 1032 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES WEST OF BUNCH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MARIETTA...STILWELL...
BUNCH...BARON AND COOKSON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1126 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

OKZ054-060-064-067-150515-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
1126 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OSAGE...TULSA...EASTERN CREEK AND WESTERN WAGONER

AT 1126 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF SAND SPRINGS TO 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF JENKS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...GRAY...TULSA...SAND
SPRINGS...JENKS...OWASSO...GLENPOOL...SPERRY...SKIATOOK...BROKEN
ARROW...KIEFER AND SAPULPA.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.