Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
345 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO CONTINUES TO BE
RATHER DISORGANIZED...BUT LATEST SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA DO
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF
THE CENTER.  ALBERTO IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY.  IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME STORM SURGE.  LATEST FORECAST FROM HURRICANE
CENTER DOES INDICATE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALONG WITH BROADER WIND FIELD WHICH WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...PRIMARILY IN GUSTS TO THE COAST FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH
DURING MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY IN
THE 80S...AND THEN CLIMB BACK TO ABOUT NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM (WED NGT-SUN)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTH CENTRAL STATES.  THESE FEATURES SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HIGH CENTER BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STAY AROUND TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 90S INLAND AND LOWS AROUND 70 NORTH TO
THE MID 70S COASTAL.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY ALBERTO
MOVES NORTHEAST.  CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TUESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING BELOW FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY AS ALBERTO
DRAWS NEARER TO THE AREA.  SKIES SHOULD BE OVERCAST ALL DAY AT
AROUND 2500 FEET WITH WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONGER STORMS COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITH VISIBILITIES
BELOW 1 MILE IN THE TORRENTIAL RAINS.  CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS ALBERTO NEARS THE FLORIDA COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  76  87  76 /  90  80  60  50
FMY  83  74  88  74 /  90  80  70  50
GIF  83  73  88  73 /  90  80  60  50
SRQ  82  75  86  75 /  90  80  60  50
BKV  83  72  88  72 /  90  80  50  40
SPG  83  76  86  76 /  90  80  60  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-
     PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

     INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-
     HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HERNANDO-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT TO 60 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...PRC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JLC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
645 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-121500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
645 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE
GROUND TO ABSORB A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY PROVE TOO MUCH FOR AREA DRAINAGE SYSTEMS
TO HANDLE RESULTING IN FLOODING IN URBAN...RURAL AREAS AND NEARBY
SMALL STREAMS.

BRIEF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TODAY AS THE RAIN BANDS FROM ALBERTO MOVE THROUGH. COASTAL AREAS
COULD SEE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BY LATE THIS
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR INLAND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO.

TIDES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE MAINLAND UNITED STATES
JUST NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH THE SURGE FROM ALBERTO COULD CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH THROUGH CEDAR KEY. THE STORM SURGE TO THE
RIGHT OF WHERE ALBERTO MAKES LANDFALL COULD REACH 5 TO 8 FEET
ABOVE THE NORMAL TIDE ALONG THE LEVY...CITRUS AND HERNANDO
COAST... AND POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 FEET IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF TAMPA
BAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

PRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
132 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

FLZ051-055-056-120630-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HILLSBOROUGH-
132 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT EASTERN MANATEE
EXTREME WESTERN HARDEE AND EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...

GUSTY SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL
AFFECT MYAKKA HEAD...DUETTE...FORT LONESOME...LITHIA AND EAST
RIVERVIEW...UNTIL 230 AM EDT. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH AT
AROUND 30 MPH. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS THE
SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.

RJS