Mesoscale Discussion 710

Issued

May 1, 2006, 6:59 PM CDT (23:59 UTC)

Expired

May 1, 2006, 8:30 PM CDT

In force

91 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 012359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012359 
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-020130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CDT MON MAY 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NRN AR...SRN/ERN MO AND SWRN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 271...

VALID 012359Z - 020130Z

23Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK FRONT FROM JUST NORTH OF KSTL TO JUST
NORTH OF KSGF...THEN WWD TO A MESOLOW EAST OF KTUL TO NWRN TX. 
STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE WAS OCCURRING ACROSS SERN MO INTO SWRN
IL...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET. 
FARTHER W...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT ACROSS
NWRN AR AND ERN OK...EXCEPT LOCALLY VCNTY THE MESOLOW. 
ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WAS
MOVING ACROSS WCNTRL MO.  

TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED VCNTY THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SCNTRL MO LATE THIS
AFTN HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY/CHARACTER...PROBABLY
GIVEN WEAK CONVERGENCE.  FARTHER W...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS ALSO
BEEN DETRIMENTAL IN SUPPORTING SUBSTANTIAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.

THROUGH 03Z...THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER
AND VEER TO SWLY...MAXIMIZING STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS SERN
MO AND SWRN IL.  THUS...TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY
THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY EAST OF KTBN-KVIH-KUNO EWD INTO THE LWR OH
VLY.  FARTHER W...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS LATER IN THE EVENING AND
MAY NOT BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR UNTIL
WELL-AFTER 03Z.  THUS...WRN PARTS OF THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE
TRIMMED EARLY THIS EVENING.

KINEMATICALLY...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL.  THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ACROSS
EXTREME SERN MO AND SWRN IL WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN BACKED
WITH 0-1KM SRH AOA 150 M2/S2.

..RACY.. 05/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

36609498 39489030 38988883 36638936 36379162 34869475
35339548

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2006Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2006Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2006Every mesoscale discussion in 2006

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.