Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2006

Mesoscale Discussion 708

May 1, 20065 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 1, 2006, 2:22 PM CDT for 5 states. It was in force for 53 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 1, 2006, 2:22 PM CDT (19:22 UTC)
Expired
May 1, 2006, 3:15 PM CDT
In force
53 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 69 counties

Clay County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Alexander County, IL, Bond County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Madison County, IL, Massac County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Union County, IL, Washington County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Ballard County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Christian County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Madison County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Perry County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Scott County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Washington County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Dyer County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Lake County, TN, Obion County, TN, Weakley County, TN

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 156 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 235 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2006-05-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2006-05-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 161 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1520 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
161 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
288 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 011922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011922 
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-012015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0708
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT MON MAY 01 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL THROUGH SRN/SERN MO...SWRN IL...FAR
WRN KY...FAR NWRN TN...FAR NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 011922Z - 012015Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MO...THEN SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO SRN MO.  HAIL/STRONG
WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREATS WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

18Z MESOSCALE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN
IL SWWD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL-SWRN MO INTO NERN-CENTRAL OK.  LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED ENOUGH FROM
EAST CENTRAL MO SWWD INTO CENTRAL MO NEAR TBN TO SUPPORT SURFACE
BASED STORMS.  HOWEVER...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION
ATTM PER TRENDS IN WIND PROFILER DATA/12-18Z SOUNDINGS APPEARS TO BE
INHIBITING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION FROM FORMING THUS FAR.  

LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER
CENTRAL KS/NRN OK...AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD FURTHER
WEAKEN CAP PER 18Z SGF SOUNDING...WITH INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED.  MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.

..PETERS.. 05/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

37539211 38129135 38859083 38898934 36728809 35908885
36499209 36489353 37099377

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 30, 7:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Johnson and 7 more4 hr
Apr 30, 9:40 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Johnson and 5 more95 min
May 1, 4:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Madison, Washington118 min
May 1, 5:17 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin and 11 more7 hr
May 1, 6:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin and 8 more91 min
Apr 30, 7:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin, Johnson and 7 more60 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2006Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2006Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2006Every mesoscale discussion in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.