Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
845 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI ARE
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED IN TERMS OF ROTATION AND SEVERITY. LATEST
RUC INFORMATION CONTINUES TO SHOW AN OVERALL INCREASE OF 0-1KM
HELICITY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SINCE 7 PM...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN SHEAR AND TORNADIC PARAMETERS IN THE SAME AREAS. EXPECT
THE STORMS IN FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO
CONTINUE THEIR INTENSITY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND MAY BECOME
TORNADIC IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. JLT

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 330 PM
VERY DEFINED CONVERGENT ZONE SEEN IN METAR OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE IN THE 60S OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. BEHIND THE DRY
LINE...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR US THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LINE PUTS IT OVER SPRINGFIELD BY 01Z. 18Z SGF
SOUNDING SHOWING A LOADED GUN PROFILE...CAPE VALUES OF 2164
J/KG...WBZ AT 8850 FEET AND -5.8 LIS. GETTING REPORTS OF TORNADOS
AND LARGE HAIL FROM STORMS IN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI AND THEY
ARE HEADED THIS WAY.

GFS MOVES THE 850MB LOW THROUGH NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI BY 12Z MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE LOW...925MB WINDS UP TO 50KTS COVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE.  WE ARE GOING TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SPC FORECASTING SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
AS WELL AND HAVE THE TORNADO WATCH OUT THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT EXTENDED.

ONCE THE LOW MOVES EAST...850MB TEMPS DROP FROM 14C TODAY TO -4C
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME MORE SEASONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS.

DID NOT MESS TOO MUCH WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID INTRODUCE CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE...JUST FOCUSED
ON THE SHORT TERM. GCC
&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS...DRY LINE STILL HANGING TOUGH OVER EASTERN KANSAS. LATEST
SOUNDING SHOWING THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STARTING TO BREAK DOWN. SO
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI SHORTLY. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS COLD
FRONT DOES NOT MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH UNTIL 12Z TOMORROW.

GCC

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-131500-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
625 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

 WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
 PRODUCING:

   HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS.
   DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.
   TORNADOES...A FEW POTENTIALLY VIOLENT AND LONG LIVED.
   LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

 AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE
  EVENING. THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM
  JOPLIN TO NEVADA EARLY THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. SPREADING
  EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI FROM BRANSON TO OSAGE BEACH AROUND
  MIDNIGHT. THEN OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI AROUND 3 AM.

  DISCUSSION:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN
  MISSOURI AND ALONG A DRY LINE SITUATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS.
  CURRENTLY...THE DRY LINE IS LOCATED IN EASTERN KANSAS FROM TOPEKA
  SOUTH TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG
  THIS LINE AND THE LINE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. SQUALL
  LINES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
  WINDS AND HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING SOME VIOLENT TORNADOES.

  THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. PLEASE REVIEW
  SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND MONITOR LOCAL MEDIA AND NOAA
  WEATHER RADIO FOR WATCHES AND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY FOR AN
  INCREASED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EARLY EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GCC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 PM     HAIL             BATTLEFIELD             37.12N 93.37W
03/12/2006  E1.25 INCH       GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

&&

JAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1140 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     TORNADO          2 E BILLINGS            37.07N 93.52W
03/12/2006                   CHRISTIAN          MO   PUBLIC

            TREES REPORTED DOWN. BARNS DESTROYED AND DEBRIS ON
            ROADWAY 1 MILE SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. POSSIBLE TORNADO
            DAMAGE.

&&

JAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HAIL             LIBERAL                 37.56N 94.52W
03/12/2006  E0.25 INCH       BARTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1142 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TORNADO          BILLINGS                37.07N 93.55W
03/12/2006                   CHRISTIAN          MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN AND HOUSING DEBRIS...ALONG 160 FROM
            MARIONVILLE TO BILLINGS. POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE

&&

JAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1136 PM     HAIL             GROVESPRING             37.40N 92.61W
03/12/2006  E1.00 INCH       WRIGHT             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT FF AND C...60 MPH WIND WAS MEASURED BY INSTRUMENT.

&&

JAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S LINCOLN             38.36N 93.33W
03/12/2006                   BENTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STORAGE BIN BLOWN ACROSS HIGHAY 65.

&&

GAGAN