Severe Thunderstorm Warning 367, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
115 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTH
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC FRONT, ENTERING
NORTHWEST OK THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN
BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE
CENTRAL OK TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AROUND THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD PLACE SOUTH CENTRAL OK IN A FAVORABLE SPOT FOR
SUSTAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND POPS ARE HIGHEST THERE FOR TONIGHT.
WITH THE MODEST PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND LACK OF
RAIN IN THAT PART OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING, ONLY ISOLATED
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL TO OCCUR SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER.

MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE MOTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH SO THAT IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
LINGERING WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EAST TX PRESENTS A LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN SOUTHEAST OK MONDAY BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THE REST OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  89  68  93 /  60  20  10  10
HOBART OK         64  92  67  95 /  40  10   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  69  96 /  60  20  10  10
GAGE OK           60  91  64  95 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     65  88  67  92 /  60  40   0  10
DURANT OK         71  89  70  93 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-181200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1205 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AND MOST OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
EAST OF A LINE FROM WOODWARD...TO MANGUM...AND QUANAH.

TIMING...
BETWEEN 1 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...AND LIFT INCREASES FROM AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALMOST ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK CAP...THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. DUE TO COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH A SECONDARY CONCERN.

OTHER STORMS MAY FORM NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT LIES NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER...AND MERGES WITH THE COLD FRONT. DUE TO GREATER
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR...STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY MERGER...HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRODUCING THE
LARGEST HAIL. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THESE STORMS SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY JUN 18.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES
OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINING LOW.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

JAMES

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