Severe Thunderstorm Warning 334, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
153 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN OK BY MID-EVENING.
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH, INCREASED DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE, AND A
LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT SHOULD GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN A LARGER AREA OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OK AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TX. WEAK UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A STRONGER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS COMPLEX
OF RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME TRAINING IS EXPECTED. AS THIS AREA
MOVES INTO CENTRAL OK SATURDAY MORNING, THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
GENERAL RAIN BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO OK SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LESSEN THE MOVEMENT OF RAIN AND ALLOW HEAVY RAINFALL IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL OK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL
AREAS MAY HAVE FLOODING PROBLEMS BY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT OVERALL,
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE RAINS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE LARGELY IN DIFFERENT AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO WESTERN AR OR
NORTHEAST TX THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ATTENDANT LOW POPS IN SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK. THE REST OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  82  69  86 /  50  80  60  40
HOBART OK         70  84  67  89 /  70  50  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  87  70  88 /  50  60  60  40
GAGE OK           67  82  64  89 /  80  40  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  81  67  85 /  50  70  60  60
DURANT OK         72  86  71  85 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-171200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
700 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND MOST OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM BRAMAN... TO PIEDMONT...
TO WAURIKA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 2 AM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS ARE
POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD REMAIN PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ON FRIDAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS... IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING... AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO KANSAS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING... AND INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER DARK. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT... REACHING EASTERN
OKLAHOMA BY MORNING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY JUN 17.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA TONIGHT AS STORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE... ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN LOW AFTER SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

JAMES/24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
735 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     HAIL             DEMPSEY                 35.52N 99.82W
06/16/2006  E0.75 INCH       ROGER MILLS        OK   PUBLIC

&&

JPIKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
747 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

OKZ005-011-170130-
WOODS OK-MAJOR OK-
747 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR MAJOR AND WOODS COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES WEST OF
LOOKOUT TO 29 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAYNOKA AT 747 PM CDT...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

PEOPLE IN MAJOR AND WOODS COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF ALVA...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND
REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
749 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HAIL             1 SSW CHEYENNE          35.60N 99.68W
06/16/2006  E1.00 INCH       ROGER MILLS        OK   PUBLIC

&&

JPIKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
808 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

OKZ015-016-170145-
DEWEY OK-CUSTER OK-
808 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CUSTER AND DEWEY COUNTIES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH WILL MOVE ACROSS
CUSTER AND DEWEY COUNTIES. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL
ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN CUSTER AND DEWEY COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
813 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

TXZ083-170145-
HARDEMAN TX-
813 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HARDEMAN COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GOODLETT AT
813 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN HARDEMAN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
815 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             4 W SWEETWATER          35.42N 99.99W
06/16/2006  E1.00 INCH       BECKHAM            OK   PUBLIC

&&

JPIKE