Severe Thunderstorm Warning 340, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
153 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN OK BY MID-EVENING.
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH, INCREASED DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE, AND A
LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT SHOULD GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN A LARGER AREA OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OK AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF TX. WEAK UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A STRONGER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS COMPLEX
OF RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME TRAINING IS EXPECTED. AS THIS AREA
MOVES INTO CENTRAL OK SATURDAY MORNING, THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
GENERAL RAIN BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO OK SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LESSEN THE MOVEMENT OF RAIN AND ALLOW HEAVY RAINFALL IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL OK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL
AREAS MAY HAVE FLOODING PROBLEMS BY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT OVERALL,
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE RAINS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE LARGELY IN DIFFERENT AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO WESTERN AR OR
NORTHEAST TX THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ATTENDANT LOW POPS IN SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK. THE REST OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  82  69  86 /  50  80  60  40
HOBART OK         70  84  67  89 /  70  50  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  87  70  88 /  50  60  60  40
GAGE OK           67  82  64  89 /  80  40  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  81  67  85 /  50  70  60  60
DURANT OK         72  86  71  85 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-171200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
700 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND MOST OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM BRAMAN... TO PIEDMONT...
TO WAURIKA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 2 AM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS ARE
POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD REMAIN PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ON FRIDAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS... IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING... AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO KANSAS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING... AND INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER DARK. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT... REACHING EASTERN
OKLAHOMA BY MORNING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY JUN 17.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA TONIGHT AS STORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE... ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN LOW AFTER SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

JAMES/24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
857 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W GOULD               34.67N 99.83W
06/16/2006  M65 MPH          HARMON             OK   MESONET

            MEASURED WIND GUST

&&

JPIKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
902 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

OKZ015-016-022-170230-
DEWEY OK-CUSTER OK-WASHITA OK-
902 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CUSTER...DEWEY AND WASHITA
COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM SEILING... TO CUSTER
CITY... TO CORDELL... AT 902 PM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THE
STRONG STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

PEOPLE IN CUSTER...DEWEY AND WASHITA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES
OF CLINTON AND WEATHERFORD...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
921 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             HOLLIS                  34.69N 99.92W
06/16/2006  E0.88 INCH       HARMON             OK   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JPIKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
926 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

OKZ017-170315-
BLAINE OK-
926 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BLAINE COUNTY.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH... WILL
TRACK ACROSS BLAINE COUNTY. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH... AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL... CAN BE EXPECTED.

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
939 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW MARTHA             34.74N 99.40W
06/16/2006                   JACKSON            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWNED

&&

JPIKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
946 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

OKZ022-035-170315-
WASHITA OK-KIOWA OK-
946 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR KIOWA AND WASHITA COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM SENTINEL TO 18 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ROOSEVELT AT 946 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
SMALL HAIL... HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH ARE LIKELY
WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN KIOWA AND WASHITA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
HOBART...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CJS