Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
400 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW QUASI-STATIONARY LL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AT
MID/UPPER LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY...ANALYSIS SHOWING LITTLE STRONGER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OH VALLEY.

MODERATE/DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RIDE DOWN TOWARD/ACROSS THE
REGION IN NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION FOCUSED ACROSS
THE CWA EARLIER HAS DIED DOWN WITH ML S/W NOW WELL EAST.

NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN LL BOUNDARIES WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH THIS
EVENING. THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOWEVER...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AROUND SOUTHERN BOUNDARY FOR
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH MIDDLE...WITH
SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG/SEVERE.  WILL NEED TO RAISE POPS THERE.

BRIEF PERIOD OF SEMI-DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM
LATER THIS EVENING MOSTLY NORTH. AFTER 06Z THOUGH...LL BOUNDARIES
SEEM TO CONVERGE SOME AND SET STORM TRACK UP BACK OVER THE CWA ONCE
AGAIN...AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS DEEP MOISTURE SOURCE ACROSS
OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO ADDRESS SOUTHNERN TIER WATCH PLAN JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING...WITH SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS PUSHING
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO LATE MORNING MONDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON
EAST.

GOOD DRYING FINALLY COMMENCES MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC/LL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OH VALLEY AND PUSHES BOUNDARY INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY...FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE ML/UL RIDGES BUILD
EAST AND ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES ACROSS REMAINDER
ON THURSDAY.

NO POPS PLANNED MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING...CHANCE POPS
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE ALL AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    60  75  53  80 /  40  40  10  10
CLARKSVILLE  57  74  51  79 /  50  40  10  10
CROSSVILLE   55  69  50  75 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-221030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTH AND
WEST PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL POSSIBLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDSTATE ON MONDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THESE
PERIODS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

BECAUSE OF THE ISOLATED NATURE OF SEVERE WEATHER...SPOTTER AND
EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY.

GIRODO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
429 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

TNZ093>095-212230-
GILES-LAWRENCE-WAYNE-
429 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING GILES...LAWRENCE AND WAYNE
COUNTIES...

AT 424 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES WEST OF
WAYNESBORO TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAWRENCEBURG TO PULASKI...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL GILES...CENTRAL LAWRENCE AND NORTHERN WAYNE
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG AND
PULASKI...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

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