Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Nashville, TN

000 
WWUS54 KOHX 072247
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
546 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

TNC035-072300-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-060407T2300Z/
CUMBERLAND TN-
546 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR CUMBERLAND COUNTY...

AT 542 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR CROSSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FAIRFIELD GLADE AND CRAB ORCHARD BY 555 PM CDT

IF YOU HAVE NOT YET GONE TO A SAFE PLACE TO AVOID THIS 
STORM...PLEASE DO SO IMMEDIATELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
TENNESSEE. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR TENNESSEE. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR TENNESSEE.

LAT...LON 3609 8515 3583 8518 3583 8485 3589 8467
      3612 8485

$$
STEIGERWALDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
915 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

.UPDATE...
SPC ALREADY TALKING ABOUT POSSIBLE WATCH WITH SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT ALREADY TAKING PLACE MEM AREA. LOOKING AT MORNING
SOUNDING AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS...ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR SEVERE
INCLUDING TORNADOES...

FROM 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...

SWEAT INDEX 300+
TOTAL TOTALS 50+
LI -5 TO -10
CAPE INCREASING TO 2000+
0-3 KM HELICITIES 300+

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 219 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006)

SHORT TERM...ALLS QUIET AT THE MOMENT, ALTHOUGH THE RADAR DOES
SHOW SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER PLATEAU THIS HOUR.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD, WITH 06Z READINGS RANGING
FROM CROSSVILLES 67 DEGREES, TO LEBANONS 72. DEW POINTS ARE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES
FROM THE SOUTH, AND THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS.

THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A 985 MB LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA,
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD, AND THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER FAR TO OUR NORTH. THUS, MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS WELL INSIDE A BROAD MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS.
INTERESTINGLY, SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASE FARTHER WEST, BUT DROP
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MEANING THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LOW.

LONG TERM...AM EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCES DOWN SOUTH AROUND
WAYNESBORO AND LAWRENCEBURG. A WEAK, PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING, BUT THEN WE ACTUALLY
DRY OUT FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATER ON TODAY. THEREFORE, AM NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.

AT 00Z THIS EVENING, THE GFS/ETA/NGM MODELS FILL THE LOW TO 998-
999 MB AND BRING THE CENTER UP TO CAPE GIRARDEAU, AND AT 06Z,
THE LOW WILL BE AROUND JACKSON, TENNESSEE AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE 850 MB FLOW. BY THIS TIME, DEEP MOISTURE AND A
DEEP POSITIVE OMEGA FIELD DEVELOP OVER THE MID STATE, MOST
STRONGLY DEPICTED BY THE GFS SOLUTION, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT BY
THE ETA AND NGM. STILL, THE CONSISTENCY SHOWN BY THE MODELS THE
LAST 2-3 DAYS GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE TO TONIGHTS FORECAST.

LOOKING AT VARIOUS DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY FIELDS GIVES A BETTER
UNDERSTANDING OF THE TYPE OF WEATHER WERE EXPECTING OVERNIGHT.
ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MID-
LEVELS, WITH EQUALLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
WITHIN THE 700-500 MB LAYER, INDICATING UPWARD ACCELERATION
THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS. LIKEWISE, LAPSE RATES IN THIS LAYER WILL
REMAIN 6.5 TO 7.0 DEGREES CELSIUS PER KM THROUGHOUT TODAY AND
TONIGHT, INDICATING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION.

SIMILARLY, THE WIND FIELDS AT 06Z SHOW REMARKABLE UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH EQUALLY STRONG THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB, AND MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AT THE
SURFACE. ALL, OF COURSE, WILL BE CONTRIBUTORS TO THE ACTIVE
WEATHER WERE EXPECTING OVERNIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AT THE SAME TIME ALSO REFLECT DEEP INSTABILITY,
WITH MARKED DRY AIR INSTRUSION SHOWN ON THE GFS MODEL SOUDING FOR
BNA, TO A LESSER EXTEND ON THE NGM SOUNDING, WITH THE ETA MODEL
SHOWING A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN 24 HOURS FROM NOW. USING THE NGM
SOUNDING AS A COMPROMISE, WERE STILL LOOKING AT A K-INDEX OF 33,
A LIFTED INDEX OF -6.4, AND CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY
OF 1865 J/KG. A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD PUTS A LID ON THE 0-3 KM
HELICITY, WITH A VALUE OF ONLY 89. HOWEVER, THE FREEZING LEVEL
WILL BE AROUND 9,500 FEET, MEANING THAT THOSE STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

THE MOST RECENT DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE (CLARKSVILLE, GALLATIN, LIVINGSTON) UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A MODERATE RISK COVERS AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH (NASHVILLE, MURFREESBORO, CROSSVILLE), WHILE A HIGH
RISK AREA COVERS OUR EXTREME SOUTH (WAYNESBORO, LAWRENCEBURG,
PULASKI).

BY 12Z SATURDAY, THE LOW CENTER WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE
APPALACHIANS, WITH DEEP WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, PARTICULARLY THE PLATEAU. WE WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY AS THE MOISTURE PULLS EAST, AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA SIMULTANEOUSLY.

AFTERWARDS, LOOK FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER, WITH THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1223 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-081030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
1223 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE
TODAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND INTO THE MID STATE. THIS COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AS THE
AFTERNOON CONTINUES. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE...
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
SO THAT AN INCREASING RISK OF NOT ONLY VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT TORNADOES AS WELL...WILL BE VERY LIKELY.

THE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES
...AND CONTINUE IN THIS MANNER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SOME TORNADOES COULD MOVE LONG DISTANCES BEFORE DISSIPATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STEIGERWALDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
516 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             COLLINWOOD              35.18N 87.74W
04/07/2006  M0.88 INCH       WAYNE              TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN COLINWOOD

&&

MMURPHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
518 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             FRANKLIN                35.93N 86.84W
04/07/2006  M2.75 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL IN FRANKLIN NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF MAC HATCHER PKWY AND 431

&&

MMURPHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
519 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     HAIL             5 E FRANKLIN            35.93N 86.75W
04/07/2006  M1.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALONG I-65 EAST OF FRANKLIN

&&

MMURPHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
521 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             1 E FRANKLIN            35.93N 86.82W
04/07/2006  M1.75 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL EAST OF FRANKLIN

&&

MMURPHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
528 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HAIL             NOLENSVILLE             35.95N 86.65W
04/07/2006  M1.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN NOLENSVILLE

&&

MMURPHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
532 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     HAIL             COLLINWOOD              35.18N 87.74W
04/07/2006  M1.75 INCH       WAYNE              TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN COLLINWOOD

0531 PM     HAIL             COLLINWOOD              35.18N 87.74W
04/07/2006  M1.75 INCH       WAYNE              TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN COLLINWOOD

0531 PM     HAIL             COLLINWOOD              35.18N 87.74W
04/07/2006  M1.75 INCH       WAYNE              TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN COLLINWOOD

&&

MMURPHY