Tornado Warning 62, NWS Nashville, TN

000 
WWUS54 KOHX 072151
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
449 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

TNC041-177-072200-
/O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0062.000000T0000Z-060407T2200Z/
WARREN TN-DE KALB TN-
449 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
DE KALB AND NORTH CENTRAL WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 447 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF
SMITHVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER...
  RURAL SOUTHEASTERN DE KALB COUNTY
  RURAL NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3593 8595 3575 8590 3580 8573 3582 8564
      3603 8564

$$
STEIGERWALDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
915 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

.UPDATE...
SPC ALREADY TALKING ABOUT POSSIBLE WATCH WITH SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT ALREADY TAKING PLACE MEM AREA. LOOKING AT MORNING
SOUNDING AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS...ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR SEVERE
INCLUDING TORNADOES...

FROM 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...

SWEAT INDEX 300+
TOTAL TOTALS 50+
LI -5 TO -10
CAPE INCREASING TO 2000+
0-3 KM HELICITIES 300+

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 219 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006)

SHORT TERM...ALLS QUIET AT THE MOMENT, ALTHOUGH THE RADAR DOES
SHOW SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER PLATEAU THIS HOUR.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD, WITH 06Z READINGS RANGING
FROM CROSSVILLES 67 DEGREES, TO LEBANONS 72. DEW POINTS ARE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES
FROM THE SOUTH, AND THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS.

THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A 985 MB LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA,
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD, AND THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER FAR TO OUR NORTH. THUS, MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS WELL INSIDE A BROAD MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS.
INTERESTINGLY, SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASE FARTHER WEST, BUT DROP
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MEANING THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LOW.

LONG TERM...AM EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCES DOWN SOUTH AROUND
WAYNESBORO AND LAWRENCEBURG. A WEAK, PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING, BUT THEN WE ACTUALLY
DRY OUT FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATER ON TODAY. THEREFORE, AM NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.

AT 00Z THIS EVENING, THE GFS/ETA/NGM MODELS FILL THE LOW TO 998-
999 MB AND BRING THE CENTER UP TO CAPE GIRARDEAU, AND AT 06Z,
THE LOW WILL BE AROUND JACKSON, TENNESSEE AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE 850 MB FLOW. BY THIS TIME, DEEP MOISTURE AND A
DEEP POSITIVE OMEGA FIELD DEVELOP OVER THE MID STATE, MOST
STRONGLY DEPICTED BY THE GFS SOLUTION, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT BY
THE ETA AND NGM. STILL, THE CONSISTENCY SHOWN BY THE MODELS THE
LAST 2-3 DAYS GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE TO TONIGHTS FORECAST.

LOOKING AT VARIOUS DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY FIELDS GIVES A BETTER
UNDERSTANDING OF THE TYPE OF WEATHER WERE EXPECTING OVERNIGHT.
ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MID-
LEVELS, WITH EQUALLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
WITHIN THE 700-500 MB LAYER, INDICATING UPWARD ACCELERATION
THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS. LIKEWISE, LAPSE RATES IN THIS LAYER WILL
REMAIN 6.5 TO 7.0 DEGREES CELSIUS PER KM THROUGHOUT TODAY AND
TONIGHT, INDICATING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION.

SIMILARLY, THE WIND FIELDS AT 06Z SHOW REMARKABLE UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH EQUALLY STRONG THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB, AND MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AT THE
SURFACE. ALL, OF COURSE, WILL BE CONTRIBUTORS TO THE ACTIVE
WEATHER WERE EXPECTING OVERNIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AT THE SAME TIME ALSO REFLECT DEEP INSTABILITY,
WITH MARKED DRY AIR INSTRUSION SHOWN ON THE GFS MODEL SOUDING FOR
BNA, TO A LESSER EXTEND ON THE NGM SOUNDING, WITH THE ETA MODEL
SHOWING A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN 24 HOURS FROM NOW. USING THE NGM
SOUNDING AS A COMPROMISE, WERE STILL LOOKING AT A K-INDEX OF 33,
A LIFTED INDEX OF -6.4, AND CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY
OF 1865 J/KG. A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD PUTS A LID ON THE 0-3 KM
HELICITY, WITH A VALUE OF ONLY 89. HOWEVER, THE FREEZING LEVEL
WILL BE AROUND 9,500 FEET, MEANING THAT THOSE STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

THE MOST RECENT DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE (CLARKSVILLE, GALLATIN, LIVINGSTON) UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A MODERATE RISK COVERS AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH (NASHVILLE, MURFREESBORO, CROSSVILLE), WHILE A HIGH
RISK AREA COVERS OUR EXTREME SOUTH (WAYNESBORO, LAWRENCEBURG,
PULASKI).

BY 12Z SATURDAY, THE LOW CENTER WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE
APPALACHIANS, WITH DEEP WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, PARTICULARLY THE PLATEAU. WE WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY AS THE MOISTURE PULLS EAST, AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA SIMULTANEOUSLY.

AFTERWARDS, LOOK FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER, WITH THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1223 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-081030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
1223 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE
TODAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND INTO THE MID STATE. THIS COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AS THE
AFTERNOON CONTINUES. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE...
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
SO THAT AN INCREASING RISK OF NOT ONLY VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT TORNADOES AS WELL...WILL BE VERY LIKELY.

THE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES
...AND CONTINUE IN THIS MANNER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SOME TORNADOES COULD MOVE LONG DISTANCES BEFORE DISSIPATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STEIGERWALDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
412 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRING HILL             35.74N 86.92W
04/07/2006                   MAURY              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5 POWER POLLS DOWN ALONG HWY 31

&&

MMURPHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
415 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     HAIL             3 N LINDEN              35.65N 87.84W
04/07/2006  M1.75 INCH       PERRY              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN BEARDSTOWN AT NATIONAL GAURD
            ARMORY

&&

MMURPHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
425 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     HAIL             5 W TENNESSEE RIDGE     36.32N 87.85W
04/07/2006  M2.75 INCH       HOUSTON            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BASEBALL SIZE HAIL IN STEWART

&&

MMURPHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
428 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             3 NE BYRDSTOWN          36.60N 85.10W
04/07/2006  M1.75 INCH       PICKETT            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR STATIC

&&

MMURPHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
429 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TORNADO          MURFREESBORO            35.85N 86.39W
04/07/2006                   RUTHERFORD         TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TORNADO TOUCH DOWN NEAR OLD SALEM HIGHWAY

&&

MMURPHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
432 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             5 N WOODBURY            35.90N 86.07W
04/07/2006  M1.75 INCH       CANNON             TN   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR RITAVILLE

&&

MMURPHY