Tornado Warning 36, NWS Nashville, TN

000 
WWUS54 KOHX 071830
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
130 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

TNC043-083-071845-
/O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0036.000000T0000Z-060407T1845Z/
DICKSON TN-HOUSTON TN-
130 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON AND NORTHERN DICKSON COUNTIES...

AT 127 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CHARLOTTE...OR
ABOUT 11 MILES NORTH OF DICKSON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL CONTINUE OVER...
  RURAL NORTHEASTERN DICKSON COUNTY AT 140 PM CDT

ANOTHER TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER NORTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY AND
COULD MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST HOUSTON COUNTY VERY SOON. 

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3632 8724 3630 8719 3631 8717 3622 8719
      3619 8715 3614 8751 3621 8765 3628 8767
      3632 8760 3633 8751

$$
STEIGERWALDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
915 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

.UPDATE...
SPC ALREADY TALKING ABOUT POSSIBLE WATCH WITH SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT ALREADY TAKING PLACE MEM AREA. LOOKING AT MORNING
SOUNDING AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS...ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR SEVERE
INCLUDING TORNADOES...

FROM 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...

SWEAT INDEX 300+
TOTAL TOTALS 50+
LI -5 TO -10
CAPE INCREASING TO 2000+
0-3 KM HELICITIES 300+

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 219 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006)

SHORT TERM...ALLS QUIET AT THE MOMENT, ALTHOUGH THE RADAR DOES
SHOW SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER PLATEAU THIS HOUR.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD, WITH 06Z READINGS RANGING
FROM CROSSVILLES 67 DEGREES, TO LEBANONS 72. DEW POINTS ARE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES
FROM THE SOUTH, AND THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS.

THE SURFACE MAP SHOWS A 985 MB LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA,
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD, AND THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER FAR TO OUR NORTH. THUS, MIDDLE
TENNESSEE REMAINS WELL INSIDE A BROAD MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS.
INTERESTINGLY, SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASE FARTHER WEST, BUT DROP
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MEANING THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LOW.

LONG TERM...AM EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCES DOWN SOUTH AROUND
WAYNESBORO AND LAWRENCEBURG. A WEAK, PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING, BUT THEN WE ACTUALLY
DRY OUT FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATER ON TODAY. THEREFORE, AM NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.

AT 00Z THIS EVENING, THE GFS/ETA/NGM MODELS FILL THE LOW TO 998-
999 MB AND BRING THE CENTER UP TO CAPE GIRARDEAU, AND AT 06Z,
THE LOW WILL BE AROUND JACKSON, TENNESSEE AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE 850 MB FLOW. BY THIS TIME, DEEP MOISTURE AND A
DEEP POSITIVE OMEGA FIELD DEVELOP OVER THE MID STATE, MOST
STRONGLY DEPICTED BY THE GFS SOLUTION, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT BY
THE ETA AND NGM. STILL, THE CONSISTENCY SHOWN BY THE MODELS THE
LAST 2-3 DAYS GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE TO TONIGHTS FORECAST.

LOOKING AT VARIOUS DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY FIELDS GIVES A BETTER
UNDERSTANDING OF THE TYPE OF WEATHER WERE EXPECTING OVERNIGHT.
ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MID-
LEVELS, WITH EQUALLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
WITHIN THE 700-500 MB LAYER, INDICATING UPWARD ACCELERATION
THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS. LIKEWISE, LAPSE RATES IN THIS LAYER WILL
REMAIN 6.5 TO 7.0 DEGREES CELSIUS PER KM THROUGHOUT TODAY AND
TONIGHT, INDICATING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION.

SIMILARLY, THE WIND FIELDS AT 06Z SHOW REMARKABLE UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH EQUALLY STRONG THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB, AND MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AT THE
SURFACE. ALL, OF COURSE, WILL BE CONTRIBUTORS TO THE ACTIVE
WEATHER WERE EXPECTING OVERNIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS AT THE SAME TIME ALSO REFLECT DEEP INSTABILITY,
WITH MARKED DRY AIR INSTRUSION SHOWN ON THE GFS MODEL SOUDING FOR
BNA, TO A LESSER EXTEND ON THE NGM SOUNDING, WITH THE ETA MODEL
SHOWING A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN 24 HOURS FROM NOW. USING THE NGM
SOUNDING AS A COMPROMISE, WERE STILL LOOKING AT A K-INDEX OF 33,
A LIFTED INDEX OF -6.4, AND CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY
OF 1865 J/KG. A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD PUTS A LID ON THE 0-3 KM
HELICITY, WITH A VALUE OF ONLY 89. HOWEVER, THE FREEZING LEVEL
WILL BE AROUND 9,500 FEET, MEANING THAT THOSE STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

THE MOST RECENT DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE (CLARKSVILLE, GALLATIN, LIVINGSTON) UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A MODERATE RISK COVERS AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH (NASHVILLE, MURFREESBORO, CROSSVILLE), WHILE A HIGH
RISK AREA COVERS OUR EXTREME SOUTH (WAYNESBORO, LAWRENCEBURG,
PULASKI).

BY 12Z SATURDAY, THE LOW CENTER WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE
APPALACHIANS, WITH DEEP WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, PARTICULARLY THE PLATEAU. WE WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY AS THE MOISTURE PULLS EAST, AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA SIMULTANEOUSLY.

AFTERWARDS, LOOK FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER, WITH THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1223 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-081030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
1223 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE
TODAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND INTO THE MID STATE. THIS COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AS THE
AFTERNOON CONTINUES. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE...
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
SO THAT AN INCREASING RISK OF NOT ONLY VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT TORNADOES AS WELL...WILL BE VERY LIKELY.

THE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES
...AND CONTINUE IN THIS MANNER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SOME TORNADOES COULD MOVE LONG DISTANCES BEFORE DISSIPATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STEIGERWALDT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
917 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-072100-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
917 AM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...

A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE MID STATE
BRINGING SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
DURING THE DAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS WILL PUMP WARM AND MOIST
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. CONDITION WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
THROUGH THE DAY.

LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. ALONG WITH THE FRONT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM WEST TENNESSEE INTO ALABAMA. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES NORTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, INCLUDING WAVERLY,
CLARKSVILLE, NASHVILLE, LIVINGSTON, AND CROSSVILLE, UNDER A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH, INCLUDING WAYNESBORO,
LAWRENCEBURG, PULASKI, COLUMBIA, AND MANCHESTER, HAVE A HIGH RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. PEOPLE
IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
FREQUENTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. REVIEW YOUR SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY PLAN NOW SO YOU WILL BE PREPARED IF SEVERE WEATHER
APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1126 AM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1114 AM     HAIL             16 NW DOVER             36.65N 88.05W
04/07/2006  E0.88 INCH       STEWART            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1110 AM     HAIL             10 W DOVER              36.48N 88.02W
04/07/2006  E0.88 INCH       STEWART            TN   PUBLIC

            PINEY CAMPGROUND

&&

STEIGERWALDT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1202 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-072300-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
1202 PM CDT FRI APR 7 2006

...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE MID STATE
BRINGING SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS WILL PUMP WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY PRODUCED VERY LARGE HAIL OVER PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS
ALL OF THE MID STATE.

LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. ALONG WITH THE FRONT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST FROM WEST TENNESSEE INTO ALABAMA. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES ALL OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. PEOPLE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FREQUENTLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY
PLAN NOW SO YOU WILL BE PREPARED IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR
LOCATION.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 PM     HAIL             BIG SANDY               36.23N 88.09W
04/07/2006  M1.00 INCH       BENTON             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3/4 TO 1 INCH HAIL IN BIG SANDY

&&

MMURPHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1237 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 PM     HAIL             1 N CAMDEN              36.08N 88.10W
04/07/2006  M1.75 INCH       BENTON             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL

&&

MMURPHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
104 PM CDT FRI APR 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 PM     HAIL             7 N CAMDEN              36.17N 88.10W
04/07/2006  M1.75 INCH       BENTON             TN   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

MMURPHY