Severe Thunderstorm Warning 205, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
DEEP SURFACE IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ATTM WITH PRESSURE NEAR 1000
MB. VERY MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE MPX CWA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE LATEST SPC HRLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FOR
20Z SHOWING A REMARKABLE 0.40 0-3 KM VGP TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY WITH 0.50 NOSING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR HAS BEEN PICKING UP TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS
TOO WHILE THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS ABOVE 50 KNOTS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA. REMARKABLY STRONG NSE FOR AUGUST

WEVE BEEN WORKING WITH EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL PRODUCERS ALL DAY
WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY QUITE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...LOWERING LCL AND
LFC FIGURES SUGGEST STORMS WILL BECOME MORE SURFACE ROOTED WITH
INCREASING TORNADO POTENTIAL.

PWAT VALUES PICK UP TO FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AS THE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN. WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD BE
A GOOD DEAL BETTER FOR A FLOOD EVENT...WE DID ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR OUR EASTERN MN COUNTIES AND OUR WEST WISCONSIN COUNTIES.
SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WE DRY OUT.

LONGER TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
DISCUSSION NOT AVAILABLE THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR ANOKA-BENTON-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-
     HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-RAMSEY-RICE-
     SCOTT-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-TODD-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT COUNTY(IES).

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-
     POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX COUNTY(IES).

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
534 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
251045-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
534 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND FAR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO POTENTIALLY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONT...OR SOUTHWEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO ST. CLOUD
MINNESOTA TO NEW RICHMOND TO MENOMONIE WISCONSIN LINE. THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND FAR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY EXPAND INTO A LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING HEAVY RAIN WITH IT.

A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OUT OF SOUTH
DAKOTA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
SOUTH OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT. ALL OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
FRIDAY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS TIME. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

MDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
338 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     HAIL             HAMBURG                 44.73N 93.96W
08/24/2006  E0.88 INCH       CARVER             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0822 AM     HAIL             PLATO                   44.77N 94.04W
08/24/2006  E1.50 INCH       MCLEOD             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0825 AM     HAIL             PLATO                   44.77N 94.04W
08/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       MCLEOD             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 AM     HAIL             6 W BELLE PLAINE        44.62N 93.89W
08/24/2006  E0.88 INCH       SIBLEY             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0840 AM     HAIL             BELLE PLAINE            44.62N 93.76W
08/24/2006  E0.88 INCH       SCOTT              MN   PUBLIC

0841 AM     HAIL             BELLE PLAINE            44.62N 93.76W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       SCOTT              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0843 AM     HAIL             PLATO                   44.77N 94.04W
08/24/2006  E1.25 INCH       MCLEOD             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0850 AM     HAIL             NORWOOD/YOUNG AMERICA   44.78N 93.92W
08/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       CARVER             MN   AMATEUR RADIO

0850 AM     HAIL             NORWOOD/YOUNG AMERICA   44.78N 93.92W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       CARVER             MN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0851 AM     HAIL             2 N NEW PRAGUE          44.58N 93.57W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       SCOTT              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM     HAIL             2 ESE NEW PRAGUE        44.54N 93.54W
08/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       LE SUEUR           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0910 AM     HAIL             2 NW BELLE PLAINE       44.64N 93.79W
08/24/2006  M3.00 INCH       SIBLEY             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            3.1 INCH HAIL

0935 AM     HAIL             BELLE PLAINE            44.62N 93.76W
08/24/2006  E0.88 INCH       SCOTT              MN   PUBLIC

0940 AM     HAIL             BELLE PLAINE            44.62N 93.76W
08/24/2006  M2.50 INCH       SCOTT              MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

0952 AM     HAIL             NEW PRAGUE              44.55N 93.57W
08/24/2006  E4.25 INCH       SCOTT              MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL WILL BE MEASURED WHEN SAFE TO MOVE FROM SHELTER.

0956 AM     HAIL             2 N NEW PRAGUE          44.58N 93.57W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       SCOTT              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1000 AM     HAIL             5 ESE NEW PRAGUE        44.52N 93.48W
08/24/2006  M3.00 INCH       RICE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1005 AM     HAIL             KENYON                  44.27N 92.99W
08/24/2006  E0.88 INCH       GOODHUE            MN   POST OFFICE

1013 AM     HAIL             2 S NEW MARKET          44.54N 93.35W
08/24/2006  E1.50 INCH       RICE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1016 AM     HAIL             JORDAN                  44.67N 93.63W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       SCOTT              MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

1019 AM     HAIL             DENNISON                44.40N 93.03W
08/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       GOODHUE            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1032 AM     HAIL             NORTHFIELD              44.45N 93.17W
08/24/2006  M1.25 INCH       RICE               MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

1032 AM     HAIL             NORTHFIELD              44.45N 93.17W
08/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       RICE               MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

1034 AM     HAIL             2 N NORTHFIELD          44.48N 93.17W
08/24/2006  M1.25 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

1036 AM     HAIL             NORTHFIELD              44.45N 93.17W
08/24/2006  M1.25 INCH       RICE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1047 AM     HAIL             PRIOR LAKE              44.73N 93.43W
08/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       SCOTT              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1050 AM     HAIL             ZUMBROTA                44.29N 92.67W
08/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       GOODHUE            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1052 AM     HAIL             1 E ELKO                44.57N 93.30W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       SCOTT              MN   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            OBSERVED AT INTERSECTION OF CR-2 AND I-35.

1055 AM     HAIL             NEW MARKET              44.57N 93.35W
08/24/2006  E3.00 INCH       SCOTT              MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

1055 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ELKO                    44.57N 93.32W
08/24/2006                   SCOTT              MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES DOWN ON EAST EDGE OF ELKO.

1059 AM     HAIL             1 S NEW MARKET          44.56N 93.35W
08/24/2006  M3.00 INCH       SCOTT              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1100 AM     HAIL             1 N WEBSTER             44.54N 93.35W
08/24/2006  E1.25 INCH       SCOTT              MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

1103 AM     HAIL             WANAMINGO               44.31N 92.79W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       GOODHUE            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1115 AM     HAIL             NORTHFIELD              44.45N 93.17W
08/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       RICE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1116 AM     HAIL             NORTHFIELD              44.45N 93.17W
08/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       RICE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1120 AM     HAIL             NORTHFIELD              44.45N 93.17W
08/24/2006  E2.75 INCH       RICE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            KNOCKING TREE LIMBS DOWN AND BREAKING WINDSHIELDS

1122 AM     HAIL             DUNDAS                  44.43N 93.20W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       RICE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1126 AM     HAIL             NORTHFIELD              44.45N 93.17W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       RICE               MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1133 AM     HAIL             LAKEVILLE               44.68N 93.24W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1136 AM     HAIL             LAKEVILLE               44.68N 93.24W
08/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVED AT INTERSECTION OF CR-46 AND I-35

1140 AM     HAIL             APPLE VALLEY            44.75N 93.20W
08/24/2006  M1.00 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVED AT INTERSECTION OF CR-42 AND CEDAR. SOME MINOR
            DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND SIGNS.

1140 AM     HAIL             APPLE VALLEY            44.75N 93.20W
08/24/2006  E0.88 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1140 AM     HAIL             1 S STANTON             44.46N 93.02W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       GOODHUE            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1141 AM     HAIL             APPLE VALLEY            44.75N 93.20W
08/24/2006  E2.00 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING GROUND.

1148 AM     HAIL             NERSTRAND               44.34N 93.06W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       RICE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1150 AM     HAIL             3 N KENYON              44.32N 92.99W
08/24/2006  E2.75 INCH       GOODHUE            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1156 AM     HAIL             CLEARWATER              45.41N 94.04W
08/24/2006  E1.50 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1158 AM     HAIL             WANAMINGO               44.31N 92.79W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       GOODHUE            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BREAKING CAR WINDOWS

1202 PM     HAIL             ZUMBROTA                44.29N 92.67W
08/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       GOODHUE            MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

1202 PM     HAIL             5 N KENYON              44.34N 92.99W
08/24/2006  E2.75 INCH       GOODHUE            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BASEBALL SIZE HAIL LASTED FOR APPROXIMATELY 2 MINUTES.
            SIGNFICANT DAMAGE TO CORN CROPS.

1215 PM     HAIL             MONTICELLO              45.30N 93.80W
08/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1215 PM     HAIL             ZUMBROTA                44.29N 92.67W
08/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       GOODHUE            MN   POST OFFICE

1250 PM     HAIL             ST MICHAEL              45.21N 93.66W
08/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0110 PM     HAIL             ST MICHAEL              45.21N 93.66W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0110 PM     HAIL             ROGERS                  45.19N 93.55W
08/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL ONGOING SINCE 100 PM CDT.

0122 PM     HAIL             ROGERS                  45.19N 93.55W
08/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVED AT ROGERS EXIT ON I-94.

0130 PM     HAIL             DAYTON                  45.19N 93.47W
08/24/2006  E2.75 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0138 PM     HAIL             CHAMPLIN                45.17N 93.39W
08/24/2006  E0.88 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0140 PM     HAIL             ANDOVER                 45.26N 93.33W
08/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       ANOKA              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0145 PM     HAIL             ANDOVER                 45.26N 93.33W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       ANOKA              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0146 PM     HAIL             COON RAPIDS             45.17N 93.31W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       ANOKA              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0148 PM     HAIL             ANOKA                   45.21N 93.39W
08/24/2006  M2.00 INCH       ANOKA              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0149 PM     HAIL             COON RAPIDS             45.17N 93.31W
08/24/2006  E1.25 INCH       ANOKA              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0156 PM     HAIL             ANOKA                   45.21N 93.39W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       ANOKA              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DOWNTOWN ANOKA...BROKEN WINDOWS AND POOLING OF WATER.

0203 PM     HAIL             BLAINE                  45.17N 93.21W
08/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       ANOKA              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0315 PM     HAIL             2 E MAPLEWOOD           44.99N 92.98W
08/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       RAMSEY             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0316 PM     HAIL             3 E MAPLEWOOD           44.99N 92.96W
08/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0316 PM     HAIL             LAKE ELMO               45.00N 92.91W
08/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0317 PM     HAIL             LAKE ELMO               45.00N 92.91W
08/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0329 PM     HAIL             ST FRANCIS              45.44N 93.31W
08/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       ISANTI             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR HWY 47 AND 28

&&

BVS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
343 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     HAIL             HUDSON                  44.97N 92.74W
08/24/2006  M0.75 INCH       ST. CROIX          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BVS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
347 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     HAIL             3 N ROBERTS             45.03N 92.55W
08/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       ST. CROIX          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BVS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     HAIL             VILLARD                 45.71N 95.27W
08/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       POPE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BVS

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