Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
DEEP SURFACE IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ATTM WITH PRESSURE NEAR 1000
MB. VERY MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR PUSHING INTO THE MPX CWA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE LATEST SPC HRLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FOR
20Z SHOWING A REMARKABLE 0.40 0-3 KM VGP TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY WITH 0.50 NOSING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN.
THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR HAS BEEN PICKING UP TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS
TOO WHILE THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS ABOVE 50 KNOTS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA. REMARKABLY STRONG NSE FOR AUGUST

WEVE BEEN WORKING WITH EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL PRODUCERS ALL DAY
WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY QUITE ELEVATED. HOWEVER...LOWERING LCL AND
LFC FIGURES SUGGEST STORMS WILL BECOME MORE SURFACE ROOTED WITH
INCREASING TORNADO POTENTIAL.

PWAT VALUES PICK UP TO FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AS THE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN. WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD BE
A GOOD DEAL BETTER FOR A FLOOD EVENT...WE DID ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR OUR EASTERN MN COUNTIES AND OUR WEST WISCONSIN COUNTIES.
SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WE DRY OUT.

LONGER TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
DISCUSSION NOT AVAILABLE THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR ANOKA-BENTON-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-
     HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-RAMSEY-RICE-
     SCOTT-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-TODD-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT COUNTY(IES).

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-
     POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX COUNTY(IES).

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
534 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
251045-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
534 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND FAR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO POTENTIALLY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONT...OR SOUTHWEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO ST. CLOUD
MINNESOTA TO NEW RICHMOND TO MENOMONIE WISCONSIN LINE. THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND FAR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY EXPAND INTO A LARGE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING HEAVY RAIN WITH IT.

A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OUT OF SOUTH
DAKOTA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
SOUTH OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT. ALL OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
FRIDAY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS TIME. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

MDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             MONTICELLO              45.30N 93.80W
08/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0605 PM     HAIL             OTSEGO                  45.29N 93.61W
08/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       SHERBURNE          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
621 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     HAIL             RAMSEY                  45.26N 93.45W
08/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       ANOKA              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE INCH TREE BRANCHES DOWN. SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING.

&&

AZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
624 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

MNZ062-063-250030-
RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
624 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WASHINGTON AND RAMSEY COUNTIES UNTIL
730 PM CDT...

AT 619 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FOREST LAKE TO
ROSEVILLE TO EXCELSIOR...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

PEOPLE IN RAMSEY AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
632 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TORNADO          4 N WATERVILLE          44.28N 93.57W
08/24/2006                   LE SUEUR           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN.

0629 PM     TORNADO          1 E KILKENNY            44.31N 93.55W
08/24/2006                   LE SUEUR           MN   AMATEUR RADIO

0629 PM     HAIL             KILKENNY                44.31N 93.57W
08/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       LE SUEUR           MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

BVS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
636 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N ELYSIAN             44.24N 93.68W
08/24/2006                   LE SUEUR           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FARMHOUSE DETROYED.

&&

AZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
644 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TORNADO          WATERVILLE              44.22N 93.57W
08/24/2006                   LE SUEUR           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO SECOND FLOOR OF HOME ON RICE
            LAKE ROAD.

&&

AZ