Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
303 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX TODAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN PRECIP TRENDS INTO THE WEEKEND.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE THREAT.

00Z UA ANALYSIS INDICATING MEAN RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
...WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE OF OF INTEREST TAKING SHAPE OVER ID/MT. AT THE
SFC STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SD SEWD ACRS SRN MN
AND SRN WI. RADAR MOSAIC AT 07Z INDICATING A PERSISTENT LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ONGOING FROM FROM NEAR KEAU THROUGH
KENW.

FOR TODAY...BESIDES ONGOING SEVERE THREAT EARLY THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON ACROSS CWA.
ABOVE MENTIONED S/W OVER ROCKIES TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS.
UPR LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO ENHANCE SFC LOW OVER DAKOTAS WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY DRAG SFC WARM FRONT BACK NWD. IN WARM SECTOR...EXPECTING
STRONG DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR ONCE AGAIN WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA
1500 J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50KT...ALONG WITH A LONG
VEERING HODOGRAPH (AND VERY IMPRESSIVE SRH/EHI VALUES).
ATTM...MODELS KEEPING WARM SECTOR AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY CONFINED
ALONG A LINE FROM KDLL-KMSN-KJVL...WITH A COOLER ELY FLOW TO PREVAIL
EAST OF THIS LINE. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP
CLOSE EYE ON NEWD PROGRESSION OF BOUNDARY.  4KM WRF RUN SEEMS TO HAVE
DECENT HANDLE WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SO USED IT AS A GUIDE
WITH RESPECT TO POPS TOMORROW. SWODY1 HAS FAR SWRN PORTION OF CWA
NEAR MODERATE RISK...WITH REMAINDER OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK.  MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH TORNADOES AGAIN
POSSIBLE INVOF WARM FRONT.

TONIGHT...WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP NWD AS STRONG LOW LVEL
JET CRANKS UP AHEAD OF SFC LOW IN MN. STRONG 850-700MB
QN-CONVERGENCE AND IMPLIED FROTOGENETICAL LIFT...ALONG WITH MSTR
CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF JET SHOULD GENERATE STRONG MCS OVER CENTRAL
WI (WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL)...SO KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING
IN THIS REGION...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...SFC LOW TO EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS CWA DURING
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PLACE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR ONCE AGAIN. GFS
GENERATING 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ONCE AGAIN AS TEMPS WARM INTO
THE 80S...WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. FORCING TO COME FROM
SOME WK LIFT FROM ASSOCD S/W...AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG TRAILING
COLD FRONT. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

DID NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED...BUT GFS NOW BACKING OFF
SOMEWHAT ON FINAL SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...WITH NAM CONSISTENT.
ATTM...WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. GFS ALSO SHOWING A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ON MONDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE DRY ATTM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FOWLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1155 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-250815-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1155 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM THIS EVENING FOR
ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST NEAR A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
THE FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISKS ARE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.

SOME STORMS OR REPEATING STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
SOME OF THESE MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-665-250815-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
1155 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM THIS EVENING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

TZ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1254 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     LIGHTNING        KENOSHA                 42.58N 87.85W
08/24/2006                   KENOSHA            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER OUTAGES AND FIRES CAUSED BY LIGHTNING IN
            KENOSHA...PLEASANT PRAIRIE...AND JUST WEST OF TWIN LAKES.
            TIME OF EVENTS UNKNOWN.

&&

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1258 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     LIGHTNING        ELKHORN                 42.67N 88.54W
08/24/2006                   WALWORTH           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LIGHTNING CAUSED POWER OUTAGES AND FIRES IN ELKHORN. TIME
            OF EVENT UNKNOWN.

1230 PM     FLOOD            KENOSHA                 42.58N 87.85W
08/24/2006                   KENOSHA            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            URBAN FLOODING /WATER OVER CURBS/ IN KENOSHA AND PLEASANT
            PRAIRIE.

&&

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
118 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-241935-
COLUMBIA-DANE-DODGE-FOND DU LAC-GREEN-GREEN LAKE-IOWA-JEFFERSON-
KENOSHA-LAFAYETTE-MARQUETTE-MILWAUKEE-OZAUKEE-RACINE-ROCK-SAUK-
SHEBOYGAN-WALWORTH-WASHINGTON-WAUKESHA-
118 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 741 IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL 7 PM CDT...

AS OF 118 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST OF A MINERAL POINT TO
WHITEWATER TO TWIN LAKES LINE. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WERE ENTERING IOWA AND
SAUK COUNTIES.

QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BUILDING ACROSS LAFAYETTE...
GREEN...AND ROCK COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WERE LESS INTENSTE...AND
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ANY
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES...WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

SPEICHER/WOOD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
123 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-241935-
COLUMBIA-DANE-DODGE-FOND DU LAC-GREEN-GREEN LAKE-IOWA-JEFFERSON-
KENOSHA-LAFAYETTE-MARQUETTE-MILWAUKEE-OZAUKEE-RACINE-ROCK-SAUK-
SHEBOYGAN-WALWORTH-WASHINGTON-WAUKESHA-
123 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 741 IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL 7 PM CDT...

AS OF 118 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST OF A MINERAL POINT TO
WHITEWATER TO TWIN LAKES LINE. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WERE ENTERING IOWA AND
SAUK COUNTIES.

QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BUILDING ACROSS LAFAYETTE...
GREEN...AND ROCK COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WERE LESS INTENSE...AND
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ANY
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES...WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

SPEICHER/WOOD