Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ON REPEATED BOUTS OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED INTO FIRST DAYS OF EXTENDED PERIOD.  BRIEF SUMMARY DUE TO
ONGOING SEVERE THREAT.  MANY FACTORS COMING TOGETHER ACRS SRN WI
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN CONVECTION
GETTING STRENGTHENED BY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ACRS CENTRAL INTO SERN
CWA.  ALREADY HAD ONE SVR ISSUED FOR KRAC AREA.  INCRG LOW LVL CONV
AS SWLY WNDS IN SWRN AREAS SHOWING WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS AND
SPC MESOANAYLSIS SHOWING STRONG INCR IN LOW LEVEL CON ACRS CENTRAL
AREAS. SB CAPE NOW EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG AND 3KM VGP AT 0.4.  HENCE
TOR WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 03Z.  SB CONVECTION NOT AS LKLY IN NERN
AREAS DUE TO COOLER ONSHORE FLOW BUT ELEVATED POTENTIAL STILL POSS.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAKER SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH
AFTN INSTABILITY WL CONT TO TRIGGER SCT SVR CONVECTION INTO THE EVE.
LOW LEVEL JET OF 20 TO 35 KTS THIS EVE EXPCD TO WKN AND SAG SWD
DURING THE NGT...YET PERIOD OF ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCD
WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN EXPCD LTR TNGT ALONG WITH UPSTREAM WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN VCNTY OF ND/CAN SO WL CONT LKLY WORDING FOR WITH TREND
TWD CHC POPS LT TNGT.

GFS IN LTR PERIODS OF SHORT TERM SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY BUT SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN MID LEVELS.  SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON BRIEF RESPITE FM SVR THREAT ON THU AS BEST
INSTABILITY SAGS SWD BUT WL CONT SML POPS AS SFC FNT EXPCD TO BE IN
VCNTY AND NAM BUFKIT SHOWING CAPES EXCEEDING 3000 JOULES THU AFTN.

BOTH NAM-WRF AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 35 TO 40 KT LLJ
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRI NGT OVER SWRN INTO CENTRAL WI.
HENCE WL CONT LKLY WORDING IN NORTH AND EVEN EXPAND ONE TIER SWD.
YET ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TO MOVE ACRS AREA ON SAT/SAT NGT.

FOR EXTENDED PERIODS FROM SAT NGT THRU WED...STILL EXPECT POTENT
SHORT WAVE TROF TO MOVE THRU REGION EARLY IN PERIOD.  FAIR AGREEMENT
IN ENSEMBLES SHOWING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THRU WITH UPSTREAM
KICKER LONG WAVE TROF AMPLIFYING AS IT PUSHES INTO WEST COAST.  POOR
AGREEMENT IN MEMBERS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO
UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF LONG WAVE TROF. GFS AND DGEX SHOWING MORE
PUNCH WITH BACK DOOR CDFNT SLIPPING THRU GTLAKES MON NGT.  STABILITY
MINIMAL BUT MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR -SHRA.  WL CONT
TO WATCH NEXT SEVERAL RUNS FOR TRENDS. 500MB GFS HEIGHT ANOMOLIES
SHOW 50 TO 75 METER POSITIVE ANOMOLIES ACRS WRN GTLAKES ASSOCD WITH
RIDGING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1110 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-240915-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1110 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

SCATTERED STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS
OF THE AREA TONIGHT.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISKS ARE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS STILL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-665-240915-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
1110 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY.
SCATTERED STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LIKELY
TONIGHT.

SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1111 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     HAIL             1 SW MIDDLETON          43.09N 89.52W
08/23/2006  M1.00 INCH       DANE               WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

DRH

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