Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
303 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX TODAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN PRECIP TRENDS INTO THE WEEKEND.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE THREAT.

00Z UA ANALYSIS INDICATING MEAN RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
...WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE OF OF INTEREST TAKING SHAPE OVER ID/MT. AT THE
SFC STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SD SEWD ACRS SRN MN
AND SRN WI. RADAR MOSAIC AT 07Z INDICATING A PERSISTENT LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ONGOING FROM FROM NEAR KEAU THROUGH
KENW.

FOR TODAY...BESIDES ONGOING SEVERE THREAT EARLY THIS
MORNING...EXPECTING ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON ACROSS CWA.
ABOVE MENTIONED S/W OVER ROCKIES TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS.
UPR LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO ENHANCE SFC LOW OVER DAKOTAS WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY DRAG SFC WARM FRONT BACK NWD. IN WARM SECTOR...EXPECTING
STRONG DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR ONCE AGAIN WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA
1500 J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50KT...ALONG WITH A LONG
VEERING HODOGRAPH (AND VERY IMPRESSIVE SRH/EHI VALUES).
ATTM...MODELS KEEPING WARM SECTOR AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY CONFINED
ALONG A LINE FROM KDLL-KMSN-KJVL...WITH A COOLER ELY FLOW TO PREVAIL
EAST OF THIS LINE. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP
CLOSE EYE ON NEWD PROGRESSION OF BOUNDARY.  4KM WRF RUN SEEMS TO HAVE
DECENT HANDLE WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SO USED IT AS A GUIDE
WITH RESPECT TO POPS TOMORROW. SWODY1 HAS FAR SWRN PORTION OF CWA
NEAR MODERATE RISK...WITH REMAINDER OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK.  MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH TORNADOES AGAIN
POSSIBLE INVOF WARM FRONT.

TONIGHT...WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP NWD AS STRONG LOW LVEL
JET CRANKS UP AHEAD OF SFC LOW IN MN. STRONG 850-700MB
QN-CONVERGENCE AND IMPLIED FROTOGENETICAL LIFT...ALONG WITH MSTR
CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF JET SHOULD GENERATE STRONG MCS OVER CENTRAL
WI (WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL)...SO KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING
IN THIS REGION...WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY...SFC LOW TO EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS CWA DURING
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PLACE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR ONCE AGAIN. GFS
GENERATING 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ONCE AGAIN AS TEMPS WARM INTO
THE 80S...WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. FORCING TO COME FROM
SOME WK LIFT FROM ASSOCD S/W...AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG TRAILING
COLD FRONT. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

DID NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED...BUT GFS NOW BACKING OFF
SOMEWHAT ON FINAL SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY...WITH NAM CONSISTENT.
ATTM...WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. GFS ALSO SHOWING A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ON MONDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE DRY ATTM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FOWLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-250815-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
314 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG A
LITTLE SOUTH THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT AGAIN LIFTS NORTH. THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD START MAINLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF MADISON...AND NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER IN SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...THEN EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A PORTAGE TO MADISON TO BRODHEAD
LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. SOME OF
THESE MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-665-250815-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
314 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

HENTZ

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