Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
213 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

.SHORT TERM...
CUTOFF LOW EASING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PRECEDING IT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM.  MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE NOT AS GREAT AS PREVIOUS DAYS...WHILE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE CWA.

EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH TONIGHT AS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT INCREASES
AS THE LOW APPROACHES...AND LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN
CWA.  FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DIFLUENT OVER THE AREA AND THE RRQ OF A
120+ KT H25 JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.  COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND STEEPEN H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES.  THIS ALONG WITH SOME DESTABILIZATION /CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG/ OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM INSULATION OVER THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS...VAN HORN AREA...STOCKTON PLATEAU...DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG
BEND REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE
AREAS. COULD SEE SEVERE STORMS FURTHER EAST LATER TONIGHT AS SAID
COLDER AIR ALOFT FORGES EASTWARD AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE RRQ OF
UPPER LEVEL JET IMPINGE UPON THE AREA. THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE ZONES MOST LOCATIONS. 0 TO 6 KM
BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE AROUND 50 KT...ALTHOUGH WINDS THROUGH
THE COLUMN WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH TIME. SO THINK
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL SEVERE WATCHES ISSUED OVER THE
NEXT 10 HOURS OR SO.

WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING IN ITS CURRENT CONFIGURATION
AS TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND PWATS
WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE IS AN ARGUMENT FOR ADDING OTHER COUNTIES...BUT NOT AS CERTAIN
ABOUT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA...AND MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAINFALL LATELY AS THE CURRENT
WATCH AREA.  LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
DEWPOINTS...WHICH WILL REMAIN QUITE JUICY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM NOW THAT THE
HIGHLY ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ON THE MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THIS LOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT
DAY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WANE IN ITS WAKE. MODELS
ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH OF A BREAK BETWEEN THE PASSING LOW AND THE
NEXT ONE POISED TO SHOOT DOWN THE WEST COAST INTO ROUGHLY THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY WED. WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM HOT ON THE HEELS OF
THE CURRENT ONE...WINDS THROUGH THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS
/COULD/ GET CLOSE TO CRITERIA ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RIGHT
NOW THINKING IS THAT THE CURRENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP TOO FAR
SOUTH ON MONDAY TO ALLOW WINDS TO GET TOO HIGH THROUGH THE
GUADALUPES BUT IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THEY COULD REACH CRITERIA AT
LEAST FOR A BRIEF WHILE. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE MORE ON
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS MONDAY WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY DIP OF THE
CURRENT UPPER SYSTEM. ON TUESDAY ETA12 CROSS SECTION SHOWS A
DECENT MOUNTAIN WAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE GUADALUPES...HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HIGHER WINDS FOR THEM THEN. SINCE TIMING IS
STILL A QUESTION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HIGH WIND PRODUCTS AND SIMPLY MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL BEING ADVERTISED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. STILL NOT CONVINCED THAT A LOT OF PRECIP WILL BE
GENERATED SO UNDERCUT MODELS SOMEWHAT FOR NOW. ANOTHER FRONT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SECOND
FRONT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM JUMPING BACK UP TOO HIGH
BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONT. AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED SO KEPT POPS MINIMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BEGAN
AGAIN TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. HEAVY
RAINFALL AROUND AND UPSTREAM FROM PRESIDIO HAS CAUSED THE RIVER
LEVELS TO RISE FROM CANDELARIA DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR LAJITAS.
CURRENTLY...ONLY THE RIVER GAGE 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PRESIDIO IS
REPORTING RIVER LEVELS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...HOWEVER OTHER GAGES
CONTINUE TO RISE. INTERESTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH PRESIDIO
COUNTY NEED TO REMAIN ALERT TO THE RIVER CONDITIONS AND MOVE
EQUIPMENT AND LIVESTOCK AS TIME PERMITS. NO RIVER FLOODING IN THE
CITY OF PRESIDIO IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              62  79  55  84 /  80  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                55  78  52  82 /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  81  60  88 /  60  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  77  59  88 /  60  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          52  71  52  76 /  30  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  78  52  80 /  50  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   51  71  44  77 /  40  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  79  55  84 /  70  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  64  80  55  84 /  70  20   0   0
WINK TX                    63  84  53  88 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES...ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...
     GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...AND
     SCURRY.

&&

67/13

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1110 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

NMZ029-151715-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-
1010 AM MDT SUN OCT 15 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTHERN LEA COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTH OF CAPROCK AT 1010
AM MDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
233 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

NMZ027-028-152030-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
133 PM MDT SUN OCT 15 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR SOUTHERN EDDY COUNTY...WHITES
CITY...AND MOTORISTS ALONG 62/180.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF QUEEN AT 133
PM MDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED
MARBLE HAIL IN AND NEAR DOG CANYON JUST SOUTH OF THE EDDY COUNTY
BORDER IN CULBERSON COUNTY.  WHILE THIS STORM IS NOT SEVERE AT THIS
TIME...STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM TRACKS
TO THE NORTHEAST AND APPROACHES WHITES CITY.  MOTORISTS ALONG STATE
ROAD 62/180 ARE URGED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.