Flash Flood Warning 91, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
235 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

.SHORT TERM...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND ASSOCIATED MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD MAINLY OVER
NEW MEXICO HAVE RESULTED SO FAR...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WEST OF VAN HORN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE THESE AREAS.
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 15/00Z AS A
100+ KT H25 JET NOSES INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...A H85
SOUTHEASTERLY H85 LLJ INCREASES OVER THE TRANS PECOS...AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALL COINCIDE OVER THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY THIS EVENING.  DUE TO THE ABOVE HAVE GONE
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS...AND PERMIAN BASIN.  LOWEST POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE
FROM THE PRESIDIO VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE BIG BEND...AND
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS.  SINCE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR
VECTORS WILL PEAK AROUND 50 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WINDS
WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT...AND CAPES MAY MANAGE TO ECLIPSE 500
J/KG...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  THE
FAVORED AREAS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A VAN HORN...KERMIT...AND LAMESA LINE.  THINK WELL LOSE
TOO MUCH INSTABILITY BY THE TIME MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF THE CWA FURTHER EAST.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES MOST
LOCATIONS.  WILL MENTION THE ABOVE IN THE HWO.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE LIMITED BY JUICY AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE.  WILL GO WITH MINS
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEWPOINTS.

.LONG TERM...
AN INTERESTING LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES.  MODELS DOING OK OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CALIFORNIA LOW.  AFTER THE
WEEKEND...THEY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY.  WENT AHEAD AND
UPPED THE POPS FOR SUNDAY AS CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TAPERED POPS FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITH MID 80 PERCENT UP IN THE WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS DOWN TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE PRESIDIO VALLEY.
KEPT MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AS
PWATS ARE STEADILY CLIMBING AND COULD POSSIBLY GO ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
AGAIN. EXPECT HIGHEST QPF TO STAY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THEN IT GETS INTERESTING. THE GFS PUSHES THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE
AREA VERY QUICKLY AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRIES THINGS OUT JUST AS QUICK.
THE ETA/NAM/WRF IS...GIVE OR TAKE...ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER...KEEPING PRECIP
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. MIDRANGE DGEX PICKS UP RIGHT
WHERE THE ETA/NAM/WRF LEAVES OFF. SO WITH ALL THIS DISCONTINUITY...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE THREE TO GRAB...HOPEFULLY...THE BEST OF
ALL THREE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP. IN ADDITION TO ALL THE
RAINFALL QUESTIONS...WINDS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS COULD
ALSO BECOME PROBLEMATIC AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. WILL WAIT
TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF WIND PRODUCT UNTIL MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS
RESOLVED AND CAN BETTER PINPOINT TIMING AND LONGEVITY.

THINGS LOOK TO DEFINITELY BEGIN CLEARING BY MID WEEK AS THIS UPPER
SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT IS BEING
ADVERTISED TO DROP INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  CURRENTLY...WENT WITH
LOW TO MID TEENS FOR POPS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE ANOTHER
DIP INTO 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DIVE DOWN WELL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST. LONG
RANGE MODELS TRIED TO REBOUND HIGHS A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY...SO KEPT
GRIDS OUT THAT FAR JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              63  70  62  77 /  90  80  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                60  70  57  80 /  80  70  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  64  72  64  83 /  60  70  40  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  73  63  78 /  80  80  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  67  52  80 /  70  70  20  10
HOBBS NM                   62  68  55  78 / 100  80  30  20
MARFA TX                   57  69  52  75 /  60  70  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  70  61  78 / 100  80  40  20
ODESSA TX                  64  70  60  78 / 100  80  40  20
WINK TX                    65  73  60  81 / 100  80  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

67/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
252 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-152000-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
252 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006 /152 PM MDT SAT OCT 14 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  SOME OF THE
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS.  THESE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ALONG AND NORTH OF A VAN HORN...KERMIT...AND HOBBS LINE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY
FROM THE UPPER TRANS PECOS NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS MAY MATERIALIZE IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ON
MONDAY BEHIND AN EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...MAINLY FROM THE VAN HORN AREA AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
844 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     HAIL             MARFA                   30.31N 104.03W
10/14/2006  E1.00 INCH       PRESIDIO           TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN MARFA

&&

EPLATT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1206 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

TXZ074-081-150600-
BIG BEND AREA-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
1206 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTHERN BREWSTER COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF ALTUDA AT 1206 AM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  THIS STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS U.S.90
BETWEEN ALPINE AND MARATHON.

GUSTY WINDS... SMALL HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.