Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
318 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN THIS AFTERNOON PER CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY.  AT
THIS POINT...WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS GRIDDED MODELS SHOW SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW THEY DIFFER IN BOTH AREA OF
PRECIPITATION OUTPUT AND IN MOS POPS WITH THE GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER.  THIS HAS MADE FOR A DIFFICULT PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.  HAVING LOOKED AT SEVERAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST SOLUTION AT THIS POINT IS TO
TAKE A LITTLE OF EACH.  THE 18Z KMAF RAOB HAS DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT
SINCE THIS MORNING AND SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...
BELIEVE THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE TO THE WEST OF A LAMESA TO CRANE TO
PRESIDIO LINE.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST
OF THIS LINE BUT WON/T BE AS WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY AS WEST OF THE
LINE.

WE/RE HOLDING ONTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT.  THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AS WELL AS THE
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE HAD RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE GROUND IS
SATURATED IN MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS ALREADY AND WILL BE MORE PRONE
TO FLASH FLOODING AS MORE RAINFALL OCCURS.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS STILL INDICATING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING.  AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY
ACTUALLY WASH OUT AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WHERE RAINFALL
COULD SIMPLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH THE STALLED OUT
BOUNDARY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO ROTATE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED ROUGHLY OVER THE
ARK-LA-TEX REGION.  WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
AREA...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS SHOULDNT DROP OFF TOO MUCH AS CLOUD COVER
WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...SO NOTHING BELOW NORMAL IS
EXPECTED.
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM LEFT INTACT AS IT LOOKED TO BE ON TRACK WITH
LATEST MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              70  95  70  98 /  30  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                69  87  69  89 /  60  50  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  71  92  73  94 /  30  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  88  71  91 /  40  30  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  78  62  82 /  50  60  30  20
HOBBS NM                   68  83  67  91 /  60  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   62  83  62  83 /  40  40  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  92  70  94 /  30  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                  70  89  71  92 /  40  20  20  20
WINK TX                    72  91  72  95 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...AND
     SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES...ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS
     AREA...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...LOVING...MARFA
     PLATEAU...PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER
     TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...AND
     WINKLER.

&&

74/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
204 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-151915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
204 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006 /104 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LAMESA...CRANE...PRESIDIO LINE
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVY
RAIN. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS. THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS...
ESPECIALLY SINCE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN IN MANY OF THESE AREAS IN
THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ADDITION TO WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH...HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY MATERIALIZE ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND REGION. INTERESTED
PARTIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST STATEMENTS...
ADVISORIES...AND POSSIBLE WATCHES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
443 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-150300-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUEEN...ARTESIA...CARLSBAD...
CARLSBAD CAVERNS NP...TATUM...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...JAL...
SEMINOLE...LAMESA...GAIL...SNYDER...ANDREWS...STANTON...
BIG SPRING...COLORADO CITY...VAN HORN...PECOS...MENTONE...
RED BLUFF LAKE...KERMIT...ODESSA...MIDLAND...GARDEN CITY...
MONAHANS...CRANE...MCCAMEY...RANKIN...BIG LAKE...ALPINE...
FORT STOCKTON...PRESIDIO...MARFA...BIG BEND NP...MARATHON...
SANDERSON...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP...PINE SPRINGS
443 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006 /343 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2006/

...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS RECEIVED REPORTS OF
FUNNEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWESTERN LEA COUNTY NEW
MEXICO.  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO
DETECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE AIRMASS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO IS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE.  BECAUSE THE AIRMASS IS SO MOIST...TROPICAL FUNNEL
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THESE STORMS.

TYPICALLY...TROPICAL FUNNELS ARE SHORT-LIVED AND RARELY LAST LONGER
THAN TEN MINUTES.  THEY ARE ALSO SMALL AND GROW TO PERHAPS TEN OR
TWENTY YARDS IN DIAMETER.  ON RARE OCCASIONS...THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS
DO TOUCH THE GROUND AND BRIEFLY BECOME TORNADOES.  WIND SPEEDS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 60
MPH...COMPARABLE TO A STRONG DUST DEVIL...AND CAN DAMAGE LIGHTWEIGHT
STRUCTURES SUCH AS CARPORTS AND AWNINGS. SINCE THESE TROPICAL
FUNNELS ARE BRIEF...SMALL...AND RELATIVELY WEAK...THEY ARE
VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT WITH DOPPLER RADAR.

ALONG WITH THE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.  SEEK SAFE SHELTER
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST IN
WEATHER INFORMATION.