Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 151106
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
604 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

TXC243-151230-
JEFF DAVIS-
604 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 AM CDT FOR JEFF
DAVIS COUNTY...

AT 600 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH
OVER JEFF DAVIS COUNTY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TAPERED 
OFF...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AND MOVING 
NORTHEASTWARD INTO JEFF DAVIS COUNTY. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH 700 AM CDT.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF ARROYOS AND DRAWS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS MAY TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES
IN STEEP TERRAIN. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3057 10453 3044 10386 3068 10349 3108 10410
      3077 10470

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
427 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

.SHORT TERM...
MUCH MOISTURE AND SEVERAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES RESULTING
IN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING. THINK THE CURRENT CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT.
THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS OVER MOST AREAS
CURRENTLY RECEIVING RAINFALL NOW.

AFTER THE CURRENT AREA OF PRECIPITATION DWINDLES SOMETIME DURING THE
MORNING...THINK WELL SEE CONVECTION REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE CWA.  THIS DUE TO COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GFS AND WRF TRANSLATING OVER THE
AREA...AND POSSIBLY THE TUTT LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AFFECTING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY BY THIS EVENING.  THINK
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN CWA WILL STAY FAIRLY LIGHT DURING
MUCH OF THE DAY SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE IS BEING WORKED OVER NOW.  THE
SAME CAN BE SAID FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTH TO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...THINK THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO REGENERATE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CWA TIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND REGION...AND FURTHER WEST.  HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AND SINCE MANY AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER HAVE RECEIVED MUCH RAIN THE LAST
FES DAYS...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THERE TODAY.  COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN CWA TONIGHT...BUT
WILL PUT THE WATCH OUT UNTIL 400 PM AND ALLOW THE DAYSHIFT TO
REASSESS THE SITUATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY END UP CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAVMOS...
THAN THE WARMER METMOS DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN.

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND ITS FRINGES.  MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH.  THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY PUSHING THE MOISTURE TO THE WEST WITH IT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.  WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.  THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVER THE AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD.  POPS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INFRINGE ON THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED DURING MID WEEK AS THE UPPER
HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA.  GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND
OF GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES...AND A BLEND OF GFS AND
MAV MOS FOR DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              87  71  93  71 /  40  40  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  66  89  67 /  60  50  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  93  73  94  72 /  50  50  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  69  93  70 /  60  50  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          78  64  82  63 /  50  60  30  20
HOBBS NM                   83  68  91  69 /  60  40  30  20
MARFA TX                   80  61  82  61 /  60  60  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    87  71  94  70 /  60  40  20  20
ODESSA TX                  87  70  94  70 /  60  40  20  20
WINK TX                    89  72  96  73 /  60  50  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF
     EDDY COUNTY.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES...BIG BEND AREA...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...PECOS...
     PRESIDIO VALLEY...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN
     HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...AND WARD.

&&

67/54

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
204 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-151915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
204 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006 /104 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LAMESA...CRANE...PRESIDIO LINE
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVY
RAIN. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS. THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS...
ESPECIALLY SINCE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN IN MANY OF THESE AREAS IN
THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ADDITION TO WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH...HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY MATERIALIZE ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND REGION. INTERESTED
PARTIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST STATEMENTS...
ADVISORIES...AND POSSIBLE WATCHES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND