Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 150734
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

TXC475-150915-
WARD-
230 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM CDT FOR WARD
COUNTY...

AT 229 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF WARD COUNTY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 18...NORTHWEST OF 
MONAHANS...AND ON RURAL ROADS ACROSS NORTHERN WARD COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MONAHANS...
WICKETT...AND PYOTE

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3146 10345 3145 10336 3144 10326 3140 10322
      3139 10314 3138 10309 3141 10304 3135 10291
      3129 10282 3131 10278 3164 10278 3165 10350
      3157 10347

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
318 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN THIS AFTERNOON PER CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY.  AT
THIS POINT...WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS GRIDDED MODELS SHOW SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW THEY DIFFER IN BOTH AREA OF
PRECIPITATION OUTPUT AND IN MOS POPS WITH THE GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER.  THIS HAS MADE FOR A DIFFICULT PRECIPITATION
FORECAST.  HAVING LOOKED AT SEVERAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST SOLUTION AT THIS POINT IS TO
TAKE A LITTLE OF EACH.  THE 18Z KMAF RAOB HAS DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT
SINCE THIS MORNING AND SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...
BELIEVE THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE TO THE WEST OF A LAMESA TO CRANE TO
PRESIDIO LINE.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST
OF THIS LINE BUT WON/T BE AS WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY AS WEST OF THE
LINE.

WE/RE HOLDING ONTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT.  THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AS WELL AS THE
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE HAD RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE GROUND IS
SATURATED IN MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS ALREADY AND WILL BE MORE PRONE
TO FLASH FLOODING AS MORE RAINFALL OCCURS.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS STILL INDICATING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING.  AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY
ACTUALLY WASH OUT AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WHERE RAINFALL
COULD SIMPLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH THE STALLED OUT
BOUNDARY. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO ROTATE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED ROUGHLY OVER THE
ARK-LA-TEX REGION.  WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
AREA...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS SHOULDNT DROP OFF TOO MUCH AS CLOUD COVER
WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...SO NOTHING BELOW NORMAL IS
EXPECTED.
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM LEFT INTACT AS IT LOOKED TO BE ON TRACK WITH
LATEST MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              70  95  70  98 /  30  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                69  87  69  89 /  60  50  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  71  92  73  94 /  30  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  88  71  91 /  40  30  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  78  62  82 /  50  60  30  20
HOBBS NM                   68  83  67  91 /  60  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   62  83  62  83 /  40  40  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  92  70  94 /  30  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                  70  89  71  92 /  40  20  20  20
WINK TX                    72  91  72  95 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...AND
     SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES...ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS
     AREA...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...LOVING...MARFA
     PLATEAU...PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER
     TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...AND
     WINKLER.

&&

74/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
204 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-151915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
204 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006 /104 PM MDT MON AUG 14 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LAMESA...CRANE...PRESIDIO LINE
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVY
RAIN. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS. THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS...
ESPECIALLY SINCE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN IN MANY OF THESE AREAS IN
THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ADDITION TO WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH...HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY MATERIALIZE ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND REGION. INTERESTED
PARTIES SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST STATEMENTS...
ADVISORIES...AND POSSIBLE WATCHES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND