Tornado Warning 47, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
333 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
KLZK RADAR SHOWS MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLOUDS DECREASING
IN CENTRAL SECTIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXTENDED THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT REMAINS IN OKLAHOMA WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. MODELS HAVE THE FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA WITH THE
GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL TAPER RAIN CHANCES OFF
SUNDAY MORNING AND FINALLY EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND INCREASED
POPS TO 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  83  61  78 /  70  70  70  30
HARRISON AR       67  78  52  70 /  70  70  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  83  59  78 /  70  70  70  20
PINE BLUFF AR     74  86  63  79 /  50  60  60  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  79  52  70 /  70  70  70  10
MONTICELLO AR     75  88  64  80 /  50  60  60  40
SEARCY AR         70  83  58  75 /  70  70  70  30
MOUNT IDA AR      70  82  57  77 /  70  70  70  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  80  57  73 /  70  70  70  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-ARZ005-
ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-ARZ021-ARZ022-
ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-ARZ037-
ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-ARZ046-
ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-ARZ063-
ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
815 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-231000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
815 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TODAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
LIKELY GUST ABOVE 25 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS IN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.
UNTIL THEN...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN REDEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON IN WESTERN
ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ALL
PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST CHANCES
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS...
POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. IN THESE
AREAS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 75 MPH AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER IN THE STATE ALL THE WAY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL PARTS
OF THE STATE. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME WILL BE FROM MIDDAY INTO THE
EVENING...BUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER COULD CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
154 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0131 PM     HAIL             WITTS SPRINGS           35.80N 92.90W
09/22/2006  E0.75 INCH       SEARCY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0131 PM     HAIL             PINDALL                 36.06N 92.87W
09/22/2006  E0.75 INCH       SEARCY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

51

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
329 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             WIDEMAN                 36.19N 92.01W
09/22/2006  E0.88 INCH       IZARD              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
352 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             3 S ASH FLAT            36.18N 91.61W
09/22/2006  E3.00 INCH       SHARP              AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL AND TREES DOWN.

0335 PM     HAIL             ASH FLAT                36.23N 91.61W
09/22/2006  E3.00 INCH       SHARP              AR   AIRPLANE PILOT

            HAIL AND TREES DOWN 3 MILES SOUTH OF ASH FLAT.

&&

222

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
358 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             3 S ASH FLAT            36.18N 91.61W
09/22/2006  E3.00 INCH       SHARP              AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL AND TREES DOWN.

&&

58