Severe Thunderstorm Warning 565, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
652 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006

.AVIATION...
SQUALL LINE ACROSS NW AR SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD. POSITION OF
LINE IS AHEAD OF WHAT THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. THIS LEADS TO A
DILEMMA AS TO WHETHER THE LINE WILL JUST PROGRESSING TO THE
SE...OR WHETHER IT WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN
INTENSIFY THIS AFTENOON. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH SLOWING AND
WEAKENING. TIMING ON TAFS WAS ADJUSTED TO FIT THIS.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 355 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006/

DISCUSSION...
MORE ROUGH WEATHER IN STORE FOR TODAY...AS FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA GAINS MOMENTUM. INTERACTION BETWEEN APPROACHING FRONT...OUTFLOW
FROM PREVIOUS STORMS AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATER THIS MORNING...AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS WITH
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES OVER THE REGION. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE A
LITTLE LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE
A GREATER HAZARD.

STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL CREATE GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON...WILL EXTEND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

FRONT LOOKS TO GET INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP COMING TO AN END BY THE
AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AROUND WEDNESDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF ARKANSAS...AND ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR ARZ003-ARZ004-
ARZ005-ARZ006-ARZ007-ARZ012-ARZ013-ARZ014-ARZ015-ARZ016-ARZ021-
ARZ022-ARZ023-ARZ024-ARZ025-ARZ030-ARZ031-ARZ032-ARZ033-ARZ034-
ARZ037-ARZ038-ARZ039-ARZ040-ARZ041-ARZ042-ARZ043-ARZ044-ARZ045-
ARZ046-ARZ047-ARZ052-ARZ053-ARZ054-ARZ055-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ062-
ARZ063-ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ066-ARZ067-ARZ068-ARZ069.

&&

AVIATION...28

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