Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS St. Louis, MO

April 2, 2006Lincoln County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 2, 2006, 4:44 PM CDT for Lincoln County, Missouri. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 2, 2006, 4:44 PM CDT (21:44 UTC)
Expired: Apr 2, 2006, 5:17 PM CDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Lincoln County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Apr 2, 12:28 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr
Apr 2, 3:50 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 238 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 985 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 255 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 297 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KLSX 022144
SVRLSX
MOC113-022230-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0148.060402T2144Z-060402T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
444 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 441 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11
  MILES WEST OF DAVIS...OR ABOUT 14 MILES WEST OF TROY...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DAVIS...
  ELSBERRY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3909 9128 3898 9124 3902 9070 3923 9073
      3924 9097

$$

BRITT

1 follow-up statement

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 022217
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
517 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

MOC113-022227-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-060402T2230Z/
LINCOLN MO-
517 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LINCOLN COUNTY IS 
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO WATCH 
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3909 9128 3898 9124 3902 9070 3923 9073
      3924 9097

$$

BRITT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 2, 1:49 PM CDT, 2 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 2, 1:49 PM CDT, 2 hours 55 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
149 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH MO. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LAPS DATA FROM 18Z INDICATED CAPES HAVE
INCREASED TO 2500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL MO WITH THE CIN LESS THAN
40. LIS ARE AROUND -9. MSAS SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL MO INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS AT SAME TIME.

STRONG H5 SHORT WAVE WILL ROLL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
FORECAST A 160 METER HEIGHT FALL CENTER OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 12Z
MONDAY. RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE AREA BY
WEDNESAY. THE GFS CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER WY EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE MIDWEST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS COMING AROUND TO THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION FROM LAST
EVENINGS RUN.

PLAYING A WAITING GAME FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
800 PM CDT. NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE UKMET AND NAM FORECAST SIGNIFICANT 850 MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH MO BY THAT TIME WITH DECENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI WITH A WARM FRONT
INTO E CENTRAL MISSOURI AND A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  THUNDERSDTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLDFRONT. SEVERAL STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE AND THEY SHOULD FORM AS DESCRETE STORMS AND EVOLVE INTO
A DANDY SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AT 45 KNOTS
OR MORE.  HAVE A 4 HOUR WINDOW OF STORMS IN THE TAFS.  LATER...
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES DURING THE EVENING...FIRST
AT QUINCY...THEN COLUMBIA...AND FINALLY IN THE ST LOUIS AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OH...I HAVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE ST LOUIS
AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.  WINDS AT 2 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET ARE 40
KNOTS OR MORE WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS ARE REMAINING BLO 10 KTS.

HOT AIR BALLOONISTS....TOO MUCH WIND TODAY AND RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS...TOO MUCH GRADIENT AGAIN THROUGH TOMORROW AS WELL.

PEDIGO

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 2, 2:57 PM CDT, 1 hour 47 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
257 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-031200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-
CLINTON IL-COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-
IRON-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-
MADISON IL-MARION-MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-
MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-
SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-
ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
257 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR MOST OF EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ACTING ON
WARM MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DOT THE AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE BASEBALL
SIZED HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MIDWEEK BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY
ON THURSDAY. KEEP ABREAST OF LATEST FORECASTS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL DEFINITELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MID EVENING.  IF YOU
HAVE NOT BEEN CALLED YET...CHECK WITH THOSE GROUPS YOU NORMALLY
WORK WITH...YOU WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. MEDIA SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR AN ESPECIALLY BUSY EVENT FROM 300 PM THROUGH 900 PM THIS
EVENING.  THE HIGHEST THREAT IS HAIL...BUT OTHER SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

PEDIGO

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 2, 4:28 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
428 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             5 E EWING               40.01N 91.62W
04/02/2006  E1.00 INCH       LEWIS              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JPEDIGO

Local storm report, Apr 2, 4:31 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
431 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             CENTERVILLE             37.44N 90.96W
04/02/2006  E1.75 INCH       REYNOLDS           MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DIME TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL

&&

JPEDIGO

Local storm report, Apr 2, 4:34 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
434 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HUNNEWELL               39.67N 91.86W
04/02/2006                   SHELBY             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SHED BLOWN DOWN ON HWY K NORTHWEST OF MONROE CITY

&&

JPEDIGO

Local storm report, Apr 2, 4:39 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
439 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             WRIGHT CITY             38.83N 91.02W
04/02/2006  E0.75 INCH       WARREN             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JPEDIGO

Local storm report, Apr 2, 4:41 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
441 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             1 N PALMYRA             39.80N 91.53W
04/02/2006  E0.75 INCH       MARION             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ...ALSO UNCONFIRMED TORNADO MOVING TOWARD PALMYRA

&&

JPEDIGO

Local storm report, Apr 2, 4:43 PM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
443 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             15 S SULLIVAN           38.00N 91.17W
04/02/2006  E1.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JPEDIGO

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 2, 2:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Callaway	40 min
Apr 2, 3:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Audrain	38 min
Apr 2, 3:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Osage	38 min
Apr 2, 3:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Knox, Monroe, Shelby	60 min
Apr 2, 3:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Cole, Moniteau	41 min
Apr 2, 3:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Gasconade	49 min
Apr 2, 3:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Callaway, Montgomery	46 min
Apr 2, 3:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Crawford, Franklin, Washington	66 min
Apr 2, 3:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Lincoln, Pike	50 min
Apr 2, 3:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Iron, Reynolds	46 min
Apr 2, 3:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Warren	46 min
Apr 2, 4:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Lewis, Marion	40 min
Apr 2, 4:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Jefferson, Saint Charles, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	70 min
Apr 2, 4:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Marion, Ralls	49 min
Apr 2, 4:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Iron, Reynolds	48 min
Apr 2, 4:46 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Iron, Madison, Saint Francois	44 min
Apr 2, 4:46 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Ralls	37 min
Apr 2, 4:51 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Saint Charles, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	39 min
Apr 2, 4:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Saint Francois	38 min
Apr 2, 4:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Pike	24 min
Apr 2, 4:56 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Iron, Reynolds	49 min
Apr 2, 5:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Sainte Genevieve	42 min
Apr 2, 5:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Sainte Genevieve	29 min
Apr 2, 5:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Madison	27 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.