Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 021959
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
300 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

MOC027-022030-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-060402T2030Z/
CALLAWAY MO-
300 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR CALLAWAY COUNTY...

AT 254 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL
OVER GUTHRIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
FULTON...KINGDOM CITY...AUXVASSE...WILLIAMSBURG AND SHAMROCK.

TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. REMEMBER...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING.

LAT...LON 3877 9218 3864 9205 3882 9165 3906 9164
      3906 9211

$$

CVKING

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 022017
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
317 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

MOC027-022030-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-060402T2030Z/
CALLAWAY MO-
317 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR CALLAWAY COUNTY...

AT 314 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL OVER KINGDOM
CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
AUXVASSE...WILLIAMSBURG AND SHAMROCK.

LAT...LON 3877 9218 3864 9205 3882 9165 3906 9164
      3906 9211

$$

CVKING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
149 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH MO. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LAPS DATA FROM 18Z INDICATED CAPES HAVE
INCREASED TO 2500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL MO WITH THE CIN LESS THAN
40. LIS ARE AROUND -9. MSAS SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL MO INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS AT SAME TIME.

STRONG H5 SHORT WAVE WILL ROLL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
FORECAST A 160 METER HEIGHT FALL CENTER OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 12Z
MONDAY. RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE AREA BY
WEDNESAY. THE GFS CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER WY EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE MIDWEST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS COMING AROUND TO THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION FROM LAST
EVENINGS RUN.

PLAYING A WAITING GAME FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
800 PM CDT. NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE UKMET AND NAM FORECAST SIGNIFICANT 850 MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH MO BY THAT TIME WITH DECENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI WITH A WARM FRONT
INTO E CENTRAL MISSOURI AND A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  THUNDERSDTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLDFRONT. SEVERAL STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE AND THEY SHOULD FORM AS DESCRETE STORMS AND EVOLVE INTO
A DANDY SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AT 45 KNOTS
OR MORE.  HAVE A 4 HOUR WINDOW OF STORMS IN THE TAFS.  LATER...
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES DURING THE EVENING...FIRST
AT QUINCY...THEN COLUMBIA...AND FINALLY IN THE ST LOUIS AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OH...I HAVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE ST LOUIS
AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.  WINDS AT 2 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET ARE 40
KNOTS OR MORE WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS ARE REMAINING BLO 10 KTS.

HOT AIR BALLOONISTS....TOO MUCH WIND TODAY AND RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS...TOO MUCH GRADIENT AGAIN THROUGH TOMORROW AS WELL.

PEDIGO

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
721 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-031200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-CLINTON IL-
COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-
JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-MADISON IL-MARION-
MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-
PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST CHARLES-
ST CLAIR IL-ST FRANCOIS-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-STE GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
721 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AND
VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA WILL MAKE CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THESE LONG
LIVED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZED
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND EVEN A FEW
TORNADOS.

IT APPEARS THAT THESE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL MERGE INTO A LINE
THIS EVENING AND RACE EAST AND EXIT OUR AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
CLOSELY TODAY AND BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

CARNEY