Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
149 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH MO. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE LAPS DATA FROM 18Z INDICATED CAPES HAVE
INCREASED TO 2500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL MO WITH THE CIN LESS THAN
40. LIS ARE AROUND -9. MSAS SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL MO INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS AT SAME TIME.

STRONG H5 SHORT WAVE WILL ROLL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
FORECAST A 160 METER HEIGHT FALL CENTER OVER NORTHERN INDIANA BY 12Z
MONDAY. RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE AREA BY
WEDNESAY. THE GFS CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER WY EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE MIDWEST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS COMING AROUND TO THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION FROM LAST
EVENINGS RUN.

PLAYING A WAITING GAME FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
800 PM CDT. NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE UKMET AND NAM FORECAST SIGNIFICANT 850 MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH MO BY THAT TIME WITH DECENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI WITH A WARM FRONT
INTO E CENTRAL MISSOURI AND A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  THUNDERSDTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLDFRONT. SEVERAL STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE AND THEY SHOULD FORM AS DESCRETE STORMS AND EVOLVE INTO
A DANDY SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AT 45 KNOTS
OR MORE.  HAVE A 4 HOUR WINDOW OF STORMS IN THE TAFS.  LATER...
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES DURING THE EVENING...FIRST
AT QUINCY...THEN COLUMBIA...AND FINALLY IN THE ST LOUIS AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OH...I HAVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE ST LOUIS
AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.  WINDS AT 2 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET ARE 40
KNOTS OR MORE WHILE THE SURFACE WINDS ARE REMAINING BLO 10 KTS.

HOT AIR BALLOONISTS....TOO MUCH WIND TODAY AND RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS...TOO MUCH GRADIENT AGAIN THROUGH TOMORROW AS WELL.

PEDIGO

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
257 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-031200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-
CLINTON IL-COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-
IRON-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-
MADISON IL-MARION-MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-
MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-
SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-
ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
257 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR MOST OF EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ACTING ON
WARM MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DOT THE AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE BASEBALL
SIZED HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MIDWEEK BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN SEVERE STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY
ON THURSDAY. KEEP ABREAST OF LATEST FORECASTS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL DEFINITELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MID EVENING.  IF YOU
HAVE NOT BEEN CALLED YET...CHECK WITH THOSE GROUPS YOU NORMALLY
WORK WITH...YOU WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. MEDIA SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR AN ESPECIALLY BUSY EVENT FROM 300 PM THROUGH 900 PM THIS
EVENING.  THE HIGHEST THREAT IS HAIL...BUT OTHER SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

PEDIGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             FULTON                  38.85N 91.95W
04/02/2006  E0.75 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JPEDIGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
321 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     HAIL             4 SW KINGDOM CITY       38.91N 91.99W
04/02/2006  E1.00 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JPEDIGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
324 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             KINGDOM CITY            38.95N 91.94W
04/02/2006  E1.75 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT I-70 IN KINGDOM CITY

&&

JPEDIGO