Severe Thunderstorm Warning 270, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
613 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

.MESO UPDATE...
LINE OF SVR STORMS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SRN IND...SOME HAD FAIRLY
STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. BOWING STRUCTURE DETECTED OVER
WASHINGTON COUNTY MOVING INTO CLARK COUNTY MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
INTENSE WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED...HAIL SPIKE ON RECENT
RADAR DATA IN CELL NEAR OWB. STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD...WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOPING FURTHER SW INTO WRN
KY/SRN IL/SE MO. AS A RESULT...NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY FOR REMAINDER OF OUR CNTRL KY COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITIES ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ISLTD
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY FROM I-65 WESTWARD BASED ON LATEST
MESOANALYSIS.

CS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 406 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006)

TORNADO WATCHES NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG/N OF AN
EVV-LEX LINE. A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO FROM SE IL UP INTO CNTRL IN. SOME FAIRLY
LARGE HAIL BEING REPORTED FROM THOSE STORMS. WINDS HAVE BACKED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT HNB/SDF/LEX...INDICATING INCREASING
THREAT FOR ISLTD TORNADOES. FURTHER SW...STORMS HAVING A HARD TIME
DEVELOPING OVER FAR SRN IL INTO SE MO...THOUGH THIS AREA WILL
STILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR ADDTL DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL SCT
CONVECTION OVER WRN/CNTRL TN MAY AFFECT SRN/SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
LATER ON.

CS

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006)

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO HOLD SWAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.  DEPARTING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  IN
GENERAL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.  BY LATE SUNDAY...LATEST 00Z GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA THAT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.  PRIND ARE THAT WE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER DRY THROUGH MONDAY...THEREFORE WE PLAN ON KEEPING A DRY
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.  BY TUESDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE.  SO WE WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN
FOR TUE THROUGH THU.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S. -33

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
430 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-260830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
430 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA IS IN A MODERATE
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VERY MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES TO DEVELOP AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH OF
THE BLUEGRASS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY PARKWAYS. THIS AREA IS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
WIND DAMAGE. THE STORMS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
LOUISVILLE. CALL US...OR USE E-SPOTTER ON OUR WEBSITE TO RELAY
REPORTS.

CS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
721 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             2 NW TELL CITY          37.97N 86.78W
05/25/2006  E1.00 INCH       PERRY              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
724 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

KYZ033>036-260000-
FRANKLIN-HENRY-SCOTT-SHELBY-
724 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

...STRONG STORMS MOVING INTO PARTS OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION...

AT 721 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
OWENTON TO 7 MILES NORTH OF SHELBYVILLE TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLETOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR SHELBYVILLE BY 730 PM EDT.
  NEAR FRANKFORT BY 750 PM EDT.

TRAVELERS ON I-64 BETWEEN SIMPSONVILLE AND MIDWAY WILL BE IN THE
PATH OF THESE STORMS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

CS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
726 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             5 N TELL CITY           38.02N 86.76W
05/25/2006  E1.00 INCH       PERRY              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
730 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             HARDINSBURG             37.78N 86.46W
05/25/2006  E1.00 INCH       BRECKINRIDGE       KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
731 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             5 N TELL CITY           38.02N 86.76W
05/25/2006  E1.75 INCH       PERRY              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC