Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
851 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2006

.UPDATE...

PREVIOUS THINKING LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING
OF THE CONVECTION THAT HAS BUBBLED UP TO THE WEST ALONG AN
EXTENDED AREA OF CONVERGENCE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT NEAR A DECENT
MID LEVEL JET PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID OHIO VALLEY. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE. A
COUPLE OF NICE BOWING SEGMENTS ARE HEADING TOWARDS OR MOVING
ACROSS THE WABASH RIVER ATTM. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT DIMINISHING SOME AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD INTO THE
BLUEGRASS AND SOUTH EAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WE GET CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. WILL MAINLY JUST ADJUST FOR THE STEEP DEWPT GRADIENT AND
PRECIP TIMING WITH THE UPDATED ZONES. --SCHOTT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 620 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2006)

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP FROM EVENING WORDING WITH BETTER
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MCS SOUTHERN REACHES POSSIBLE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE JUST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT PUSHING
EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE NEAR TERM.
ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT TO TIME POSSIBLE
PRECIP AN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. --SCHOTT

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 251 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2006)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FA
THIS AFTERNOON.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA WITH UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE WEST.  FAR WEST KENTUCKY CURRENTLY HAS
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.  DECENT DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALSO NOTED
WITH LOW TO MID 40 DEWPOINTS IN THE EAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AS
ONE HEADS WEST...WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 OUT AT PADUCAH.

FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.  STACKED SFC/UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST
TO HEAD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND REACH THE OHIO
RIVER BY THU AFTERNOON.

IN THE MEANTIME...CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WILL HELP BREAK THE
CAP FURTHER EASTWARD.  SUBTLE SFC TROF AXIS SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION
TO GET GOING LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MO.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.  GFS SOLUTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. THE NAM
SOLUTION IS SIMILAR BUT DOES NOT HAVE THE FEEDBACK PROBLEM.
NONETHELESS...WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...HAVE RAISED POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.  UNDER DECENT WAA
SCHEME...TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR TO DROP OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT.
GENERALLY LOW TO MID 60S SEEM REASONABLE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
READINGS IN THE URBAN AREAS.

FOR THURSDAY...CONVECTION FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
BE PUSHING OUT OF THE FA.  WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR EARLY THURSDAY.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW...RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH ANTECEDENT WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES
WITH GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN.  CONVECTIVE
MODE APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A LINEAR TYPE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.  ACCORDINGLY SPC HAS OUTLINED THE ENTIRE AREA
IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THURSDAY.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY.  GENERALLY HAVE
GONE WITH MORE OF A MAV/MET COMPROMISE WHICH YIELDS MID 80S.  HIGHER
AFTERNOON READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IF SKIES SUFFICIENTLY CLEAR IN THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

-JARVIS

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

LOOKS LIKE A DEFINITE PATTERN CHANGE TO MUCH WARMER...SUMMERLIKE
TEMPS TAKING PLACE BY THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE MEAN 500 MB COLD TROUGH THAT HAS MORE OR LESS PERSISTED ACROSS
OR NEAR OUR FA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY SHIFT WELL OFF TO
OUR EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BE REPLACED BY A VERY
WARM 500 MB RIDGE. THE GFS FCST 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE 580 TO 585 PLUS
RANGE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. THIS ALSO SHOULD KEEP THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH OF OUR FA THIS TIME TOO.

HOWEVER THE MODELS DO INDICATE THAT A WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD IMPACT OUR FA LATE IN THE PERIOD. DECIDED TO
GO WI A CHC OF TRW DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE
HPC FCST TRENDS. WE WILL GO WI CHANCE POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE.
UPPED MAX TEMPS. --21

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
352 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-250930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
252 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 /352 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN
AREAS MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.  SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.  AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA.  THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.  THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM FRANKLIN IN SIMPSON COUNTY TO BOWLING GREEN
AND EAST TO RUSSELL SPRINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.  SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JARVIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
910 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2006

INZ076-083-084-250215-
CRAWFORD-DUBOIS-ORANGE-
910 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

AT 808 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTH OF
BLOOMFIELD TO 7 MILES EAST OF PETERSBURG TO PATOKA...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES WEST OF BEDFORD TO 7 MILES EAST OF PETERSBURG
TO PRINCETON...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR PAOLI BY 950 PM EDT.
  NEAR ENGLISH BY 1015 PM EDT.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
86 AND 92.

STRONG WINDS WITH THIS STORM CAN TOPPLE WEAKLY ROOTED TREES...AND
DOWN POWER LINES. TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN
FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION.

CALLAHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
927 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     HAIL             PORTERSVILLE            38.50N 86.98W
05/24/2006  M0.50 INCH       DUBOIS             IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

AML