Severe Thunderstorm Warning 258, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
406 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

.MESO UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCHES NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG/N OF AN
EVV-LEX LINE. A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO FROM SE IL UP INTO CNTRL IN. SOME FAIRLY
LARGE HAIL BEING REPORTED FROM THOSE STORMS. WINDS HAVE BACKED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT HNB/SDF/LEX...INDICATING INCREASING
THREAT FOR ISLTD TORNADOES. FURTHER SW...STORMS HAVING A HARD TIME
DEVELOPING OVER FAR SRN IL INTO SE MO...THOUGH THIS AREA WILL
STILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR ADDTL DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL SCT
CONVECTION OVER WRN/CNTRL TN MAY AFFECT SRN/SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
LATER ON.

CS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006)

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO HOLD SWAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.  DEPARTING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  IN
GENERAL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.  BY LATE SUNDAY...LATEST 00Z GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA THAT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.  PRIND ARE THAT WE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER DRY THROUGH MONDAY...THEREFORE WE PLAN ON KEEPING A DRY
FORECAST AT THIS POINT.  BY TUESDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE.  SO WE WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN
FOR TUE THROUGH THU.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S. -33

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
430 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-260830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
430 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA IS IN A MODERATE
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VERY MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES TO DEVELOP AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH OF
THE BLUEGRASS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY PARKWAYS. THIS AREA IS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
WIND DAMAGE. THE STORMS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
LOUISVILLE. CALL US...OR USE E-SPOTTER ON OUR WEBSITE TO RELAY
REPORTS.

CS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
542 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             JASPER                  38.39N 86.94W
05/25/2006  E1.75 INCH       DUBOIS             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC