Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS Honolulu, HI

000
WGHW70 PHFO 152304
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
101 PM HST WED MAR 15 2006

HIC001-152311-
ISLAND OF HAWAII IN HAWAII COUNTY-
101 PM HST WED MAR 15 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII IN
HAWAII COUNTY...

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR HAWAII COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 
FRIDAY...

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO FALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SLOPES 
OF THE BIG ISLAND FROM PAHALA TO NAALEHU.  HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT 
FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND ALL MAJOR 
ROADWAYS REMAIN OPEN.  A FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO 
ADVISE RESIDENTS OF PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF 
STREAMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA SOURCES FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION. REPORT FLOODING TO THE POLICE OR
CIVIL DEFENSE OFFICIALS FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 1885 15577 1949 15474 1987 15509 1941 15542
      1909 15576

$$

KODAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESEND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST WED MAR 15 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL CONTINUE STATEWIDE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY AS PERSISTENT INSTABILITY TAPS INTO ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
TRIGGER HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW 800 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI HAS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM IT...STAYING WEST OF KAUAI BUT NEVERTHELESS
KEEPING THE ISLANDS VERY WET. THE FOCUS OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS
MORNING IS ON KAUAI...WHERE A JETSTREAM HAS TRIGGERED A PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE LINE JUST EAST OF LIHUE...AND ON THE BIG ISLAND...WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS BRINGING MOISTURE ASHORE. RADAR-DERIVED
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES OCCURRED OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF
KAUAI...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST BIG
ISLAND.

THE LOCATION AND ORIENTATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL AREAS CORRELATE
WELL WITH THE JET AXIS. LATEST GFS75 SHOWS THIS JET AXIS WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...LIKELY SPREADING THE THREAT OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND FLOODING AS IT GOES. HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT WITH OUR CURRENT UNSTABLE AND MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW...VERY
LITTLE IS NEEDED TO TRIGGER HEAVY RAINFALL ANYWHERE IN THE STATE.
FAVORABLE TERRAIN MAY FOCUS INTENSE SHOWERS OVER STEEP
SLOPES...CREATING FLOOD HAZARDS VERY QUICKLY.

BY SATURDAY...THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS THE
FRONT WEST OF THE ISLANDS WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH AND BEGINS TO FILL.
HOWEVER...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER AND NORTHWEST
OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...NO DOUBT
SPAWNED BY PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS ALOFT. MODEL-DERIVED RAINFALL IS
LESS ACROSS THE STATE AFTER SATURDAY...BUT WITHOUT THE RETURN OF AT
LEAST MODERATE TRADES...WE MAY STAY IN A WET PATTERN THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE JET IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...LIKELY REMOVING THIS FEATURE AS A
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AFTER SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

POWELL