Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS Honolulu, HI

000
WGHW70 PHFO 151202
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
149 AM HST WED MAR 15 2006

HIC007-151315-
ISLAND OF KAUAI IN KAUAI COUNTY-
149 AM HST WED MAR 15 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF KAUAI IN
KAUAI COUNTY UNTIL 315 AM HST...

AT 143 AM HST...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER KAUAI...ESPECIALLY OVER 
SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS. ESTIMATES BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATE THAT BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR IS FALLING. 
THIS DANGEROUSLY HIGH RAINFALL RATE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.

THE RIVER GAUGE ON THE HANAPEPE RIVER HAS JUST ALERTED US THAT THE 
RIVER IS ABOUT TO FLOW OVER ITS BANKS. ALSO...OTHER STREAMS ALONG 
THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTS ARE PROBABLY AT OR ABOVE BANK FULL.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HAENA...WAINIHA...KILAUEA...HANALEI...PRINCEVILLE...NA PALI STATE
PARK...MOLOAA...KALALAU VALLEY...ANAHOLA...KOKEE STATE PARK...KAPAA
AND WAILUA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS
AND COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT SINCE IT IS HARDER TO SEE FLASH
FLOODING IN THE DARK. AVOID TRAVEL.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR FLOODING AND SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER. MANY FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR
WHEN MOTORISTS TRY CROSSING FLOODED ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND...DON/T
DROWN.

ESCAPE RISING WATER BY CLIMBING DIRECTLY TO HIGHER GROUND. NEVER TRY
TO OUTRACE A FLOOD...EITHER ON FOOT OR IN YOUR VEHICLE. DO NOT CAMP
NEAR STREAMS OR OTHER AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS UNTIL 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA SOURCES FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION. REPORT FLOODING TO THE POLICE OR
CIVIL DEFENSE OFFICIALS FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 315 AM HST IF
FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS PERSIST.

LAT...LON 2182 15982 2182 15924 2227 15925 2226 15983

$$
CRAIG

000
WGHW70 PHFO 151235
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
232 AM HST WED MAR 15 2006

HIC007-151315-
ISLAND OF KAUAI IN KAUAI COUNTY-
232 AM HST WED MAR 15 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF KAUAI IN
KAUAI COUNTY UNTIL 315 AM HST...

AT 230 AM HST...A GAUGE ON THE SOUTH FORK OF THE WAILUA RIVER 
INDICATED WATER LEVELS ABOVE FLASH FLOOD THRESHOLD. OTHER RIVERS AND 
STREAMS INCLUDING THE HANAPEPE AND MAKAWELI ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO OR 
ABOVE BANK FULL.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HAENA...WAINIHA...KILAUEA...HANALEI...PRINCEVILLE...NA PALI STATE
PARK...MOLOAA...KALALAU VALLEY...ANAHOLA...KOKEE STATE PARK...KAPAA
AND WAILUA.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT SINCE IT IS HARDER TO SEE FLASH
FLOODING IN THE DARK. AVOID TRAVEL.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR FLOODING AND SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER. MANY FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR
WHEN MOTORISTS TRY CROSSING FLOODED ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND...DON/T
DROWN.

ESCAPE RISING WATER BY CLIMBING DIRECTLY TO HIGHER GROUND. NEVER TRY
TO OUTRACE A FLOOD...EITHER ON FOOT OR IN YOUR VEHICLE. DO NOT CAMP
NEAR STREAMS OR OTHER AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS UNTIL 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA SOURCES FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION. REPORT FLOODING TO THE POLICE OR
CIVIL DEFENSE OFFICIALS FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 315 AM HST IF
FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS PERSIST.

LAT...LON 2182 15982 2182 15924 2227 15925 2226 15983

$$
CRAIG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE MAR 14 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STATEWIDE THREAT OF POSSIBLY FLOODING RAINS CONTINUES. OAHU IS
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SECONDARY LOW OR WAVE SWUNG
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MAIN LOW TOWARD THE ISLANDS AS WELL.
ON THE WHOLE...MODEL REPRESENTATION OF THE PRIMARY LOW WAS PRETTY
GOOD...THOUGH NONE OF THE MODELS RESOLVED THE SECONDARY LOW WELL.

THE SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE NOGAPS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS
THE LONGEST...WHILE THE NAM KICKS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST SOONEST.
THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS SERVE AS A GOOD COMPROMISE...SUGGESTING
THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL LOSE MOST OF ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE ISLANDS
AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO CREEP
IN FROM THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS.

HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
ON FRIDAY WILL REINFORCE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE...
BRINGING UP MORE MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS...AND PRODUCING THE
EQUIVALENT OF WET TRADES UNDER THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION. THESE
PSEUDO-TRADES WILL AFFECT MOSTLY SLOPES FACING THE SOUTHEAST...
RATHER THAN THE MORE TYPICAL NORTHEAST. THUS...DESPITE UPPER RIDGING
MANY AREAS WILL NOT EVEN BEGIN TO DRY OUT UNTIL SATURDAY.

EVEN THE LONGER TERM MAY BE QUITE WET. MOST OF THE MODELS DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS BY LATE THIS WEEK...AND THEN
MOVE IT UP TO THE NORTH PAST THEM OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS HAD BEEN INCLINED TO MOVE IT PAST THE ISLANDS ON THE EAST...
THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS PREDICTS IT TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE
ARCHIPELAGO...SPREADING CONSIDERABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WAY.
THE MODELS HINT AT SOME GENUINE DRYING BEGINNING NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY MORE PRECISELY WHEN.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

RYSHKO