Flash Flood Warning 67, NWS Honolulu, HI

Issued

Mar 15, 2006, 3:10 AM HST (13:10 UTC)

Expired

Mar 15, 2006, 6:15 AM HST

In force

3 hr

Issued by

NWS Honolulu, HI

Area

Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Kauai County, HI

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

000
WGHW50 PHFO 151317
FFWHFO
HIC007-151615-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
310 AM HST WED MAR 15 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  THE ISLAND OF KAUAI IN KAUAI COUNTY

* UNTIL 615 AM HST

* AT 304 AM HST...A GAUGE ON THE SOUTH FORK OF THE WAILUA RIVER 
  SHOWED A SHARP RISE IN WATER LEVEL. KAUAI POLICE REPORT THAT THE 
  RIVER IS STILL IN ITS BANKS...BUT THAT IT CONTINUES TO RISE. 
  RESIDENTS ALONG THE RIVER ARE URGED TO EVACUATE.

* THE GAUGE ON THE HANAPEPE RIVER ALSO INDICATES THAT THE RIVER IS 
  AT OR ABOVE BANK FULL. OTHER STREAMS AND RIVERS...ESPECIALLY ON 
  THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDES OF THE ISLAND ARE PROBABLY RUNNING VERY 
  HIGH.

* RADAR SHOWS VERY HEAVY RAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING TO 
  THE NORTHEAST. THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH 
  FLOODING FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  HAENA...WAINIHA...KILAUEA...HANALEI...PRINCEVILLE...NA PALI STATE
  PARK...MOLOAA...KALALAU VALLEY...ANAHOLA...KOKEE STATE PARK...KAPAA
  AND WAILUA.

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. STAY AWAY FROM STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS
PRONE TO FLOODING.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS SINCE IT IS HARDER TO SEE FLASH FLOODING IN
THE DARK. AVOID TRAVEL.

DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR
ON FOOT. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO CROSS SAFELY. TURN AROUND...
DON/T DROWN.

REPORT FLOODING TO POLICE OR CIVIL DEFENSE OFFICIALS FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 615 AM HST IF
FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS PERSIST.

LAT...LON 2182 15982 2182 15924 2227 15925 2226 15983

$$
CRAIG

NWS Honolulu, HI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Mar 14, 8:30 PM HST, 6 hours 40 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE MAR 14 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STATEWIDE THREAT OF POSSIBLY FLOODING RAINS CONTINUES. OAHU IS
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SECONDARY LOW OR WAVE SWUNG
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MAIN LOW TOWARD THE ISLANDS AS WELL.
ON THE WHOLE...MODEL REPRESENTATION OF THE PRIMARY LOW WAS PRETTY
GOOD...THOUGH NONE OF THE MODELS RESOLVED THE SECONDARY LOW WELL.

THE SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE NOGAPS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS
THE LONGEST...WHILE THE NAM KICKS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST SOONEST.
THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS SERVE AS A GOOD COMPROMISE...SUGGESTING
THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL LOSE MOST OF ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE ISLANDS
AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO CREEP
IN FROM THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS.

HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
ON FRIDAY WILL REINFORCE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE...
BRINGING UP MORE MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS...AND PRODUCING THE
EQUIVALENT OF WET TRADES UNDER THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION. THESE
PSEUDO-TRADES WILL AFFECT MOSTLY SLOPES FACING THE SOUTHEAST...
RATHER THAN THE MORE TYPICAL NORTHEAST. THUS...DESPITE UPPER RIDGING
MANY AREAS WILL NOT EVEN BEGIN TO DRY OUT UNTIL SATURDAY.

EVEN THE LONGER TERM MAY BE QUITE WET. MOST OF THE MODELS DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS BY LATE THIS WEEK...AND THEN
MOVE IT UP TO THE NORTH PAST THEM OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS HAD BEEN INCLINED TO MOVE IT PAST THE ISLANDS ON THE EAST...
THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS PREDICTS IT TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE
ARCHIPELAGO...SPREADING CONSIDERABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WAY.
THE MODELS HINT AT SOME GENUINE DRYING BEGINNING NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY MORE PRECISELY WHEN.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

RYSHKO

Flash Flood Warnings in Hawaii, 2006Every flash flood warning in 2006

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.