Severe Thunderstorm Warning 533, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS YESTERDAY...SKIES CLEARED AND STRONG HEATING DEVELOPED PUSHING
CAPES INTO THE 3000 J/KG RANGE. EVEN WITH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE
DOWNDRAFT CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 800 J/KG. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALREADY IN PLACE. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SHORT TERM FLOODING AS WELL.

LIKELY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND
NORTHERN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
LATE TONIGHT AS ERNESTO APPROACHES. HOWEVER...BEST RAIN HOLDS OFF
UNTIL LATER. SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT WITH PRECIP...CLOUDS
AND DEW POINTS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP.

AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL DIRECT FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH SATURDAY. TROPICAL SYSTEM ERNESTO IS FORECAST
BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT THURSDAY
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...WHILE PRONOUNCES
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE
77 CORRIDOR. BY THURSDAY NIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...
SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG INTERSTATE 77 AND THE NORTH CAROLINA
BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF WILL BE CARRIED AS WELL. BY
FRIDAY ONLY CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF ERNESTO. THIS FLOW CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...POPS AND QPF WILL BE RATHER
LOW.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT QPF WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN EARLIER
ESTIMATES DUE TO THE TRACK OF ERNESTO BEING A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN
YESTERDAY. EVEN SO...TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN IS A GOOD BET EAST
OF INTERSTATE 77...AND AN OUTLOOK STATEMENT WILL BE REISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON STATING SUCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. A PAIR OF
WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
FOREACST...ONE THAT MOVES TO THE COAST PLAIN BEFORE UNDERGOING
FRONTOLYSIS AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THESE
SYSTEMS...WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW OVER THRE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MIDWEST LOW...AND LOW LEVEL CONVEGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARIES...
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED ROUND THE CLOCK FOR MUCH OF PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL MEANDER EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL AS THE FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS YESTERDAY...RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONGOING. HAVE VCTS AND
LOW VFR CIGS AT ALL SITES AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE CELLS AFFECT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. STRENGTH OF
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD ERNESTO. ALL LOCATIONS HAVE A PERIOD
OF IFR AROUND SUNRISE...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS KAVL WHERE IFR CIGS LINGER. BEST WINDS DEVELOP OUTSIDE
OF THE 18Z TAF TIME WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT/RWH
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
540 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-310945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
540 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT. A FEW OF STORMS MAY RESULT IN A QUICK INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM 2 INCHES OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TO 2-3 INCHES AND AREAS OF 4 INCHES ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 77. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESFGSP)
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER REPORTS OF FLOODING OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DAMAGE WOULD
BE APPRECIATE. ALSO...PLEASE REPORT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN 3 INCHES.

NED

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
305 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     HAIL             HENDERSONVILLE          35.34N 82.45W
08/30/2006  U1.00 INCH       HENDERSON          NC   PUBLIC

&&

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

SCZ003-006-007-302015-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
315 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING GREENVILLE...AND SPARTANBURG
COUNTIES...

AT 313 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER GREER...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF
GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTERS...AND WINDS AROUND
40 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PACOLET MILLS           34.92N 81.75W
08/30/2006                   SPARTANBURG        SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SHINGLES OFF ROOFS...3 TO 4 INCH DIAMETER TREE SNAPPED
            OFF.

&&

GMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-302145-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...
SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...
ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
346 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS ERNESTO APPROACHES...

TROPICAL SYSTEM ERNESTO IS FORECAST BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY...SPREADING
MOISTURE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF ERNESTO...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MOIST AIR
WILL RISE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS ERNESTO APPROACHES NORTH
CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HEAVY RAIN WEST OF THE CENTER
OF THE CIRCULATION WILL AFFECT THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR...FROM
ROCK HILL TO STATESVILLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 77.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH AMOUNTS NEAR ONE INCH IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND LESSER AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE REST OF THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA HAVE
GENERALLY EXPERIENCED A DRY SUMMER...HEAVY RAIN COULD OVERWHELM
POORLY DRAINED AREAS...OR SATURATE THE TOP LAYERS OF SOIL...
CAUSING MINOR FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 77
CORRIDOR.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

07

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR PRODUCT TYPE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-310800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...
SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...
ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
346 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS ERNESTO APPROACHES...

TROPICAL SYSTEM ERNESTO IS FORECAST BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY...SPREADING
MOISTURE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF ERNESTO...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE MOIST AIR
WILL RISE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS ERNESTO APPROACHES NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HEAVY RAIN WEST OF THE CENTER OF
THE CIRCULATION WILL AFFECT THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR...FROM ROCK
HILL TO STATESVILLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 77. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OF
NORTH CAROLINA...WITH AMOUNTS NEAR ONE INCH IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS...AND LESSER AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE REST
OF THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA HAVE
GENERALLY EXPERIENCED A DRY SUMMER...HEAVY RAIN COULD OVERWHELM
POORLY DRAINED AREAS...OR SATURATE THE TOP LAYERS OF SOIL...
CAUSING MINOR FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 77
CORRIDOR.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

07