Severe Thunderstorm Warning 529, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1135 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS ENDED AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA. CURRENT TEMPS EAST OF I-77 ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO FORECAST HIGHS. WILL BUMP UP TEMPS ALL LOCATIONS
WHERE SUNSHINE OCCURRING...HIGHEST AMOUNT EAST OF I-77.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS TROPICAL MOISTURE ALREADY OVER THE AREA. 12Z RAOBS
HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES. WITH DEW POINTS ALSO HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...INSTABILITY WILL BE AT LEAST IN THE UPPER
MODERATE RANGE AND COULD EVEN BE HIGHER. CURRENT LIKELY POP COVERAGE
LOOKS GOOD. DID BUMP EASTERN SECTIONS TO 70 PERCENT. FORECAST STORM
MOTION STILL AROUND 10 KTS...BUT WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO HIGHER DCAPE VALUES.
LITTLE TO ANY MID LEVEL DRY AIR...BUT WIND SHEAR A LITTLE HIGHER.
SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 300 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COMPLEX PATTERN BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SE PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. W/V SHOWS THE AMPLIFIED H5 TROF CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A BELT OF DEEP MOISTURE
RUNNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER NE INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROF
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST AND THE RIBBON OF MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE
DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY. THE GFS
INDICATES THAT H7 OMEGA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SFC FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THE PW/S WILL BUILD OVER 2 INCHES...K-INDEX IN THE U30S...AND CAPE
GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG. WE SHOULD SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC OFF THE
FL/GA COAST. IN ADDITION...THE H5 LOW OVER THE MID WEST MOVES OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND JET ENTRANCE REGION MOVES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SYNOPTIC AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FA
TONIGHT AND CATE COVERAGE OF RA AND ISO TS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL COULD OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. LATE TONIGHT...WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE SURGES SW INTO
THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

THURS...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO NEARS THE SC COASTLINE...POSSIBLY
MAKING LANDFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIRCULATION AROUND THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BRING BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY INTO THE I-77 CORRIDOR.

THURS MORNING THROUGH THURS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL. USING HPC QPF GUIDANCE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE
FROM AROUND AN INCH WITHIN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO 3-4
INCHES WITHIN THE I-77 CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORMS COULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS BY 1-2 INCHES. I WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THE BEST RAINFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY...IT
APPEARS THAT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALIZED. HOWEVER...IF
ERNESTO SLOWS OR MOVE FURTHER WEST...THEN A WATCH COULD BE ISSUED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...ERNESTO MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER
H5 LOW MOVES OVER THE PLAINS. THE CWA REMAINS UNDER A WEAKNESS IN
THE HEIGHTS AND CURRENT CHC POPS LOOKS GOOD. LITTLE CHANGE WILL
OCCUR WITHIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AFTER FRI.

AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD DEBRIS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ACT TO KEEP TEMPS UP AND
PLACE A LIMIT ON THE DEGREE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF THE TAFS...KAVL STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF MAKING
DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE...BUT ALL TAFS SHOULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY REACH
MVFR VISIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE. MUCH PAST THAT...WE APPEAR TO BE
ENTERING INTO A PERIOD WHERE PRECIP COULD DEVELOP REALLY AT ANY
PLACE OR ANY TIME...WHICH MAKES IT VERY DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY THE
TIMING OF ANY PRECIP AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. SINCE THE
PREVAILING CEILING/VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...PREFER TO JUST HANDLE THE WIDESPREAD LONG
TERM POSSIBILITY WITH VCSH/VCTS/CB CLOUD GROUPS...AND THEN AMEND FOR
THE LOWER CIGS/VIS WHEN THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR LATER ON.
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY THURSDAY...A MORE STEADY RAIN SHOULD SETTLE
IN SOMETIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT
LEAST MVFR CEILINGS/VIS...BUT MORE LIKELY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
IFR...AND PERHAPS EVEN A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
540 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-310945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
540 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT. A FEW OF STORMS MAY RESULT IN A QUICK INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM 2 INCHES OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TO 2-3 INCHES AND AREAS OF 4 INCHES ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 77. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESFGSP)
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER REPORTS OF FLOODING OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DAMAGE WOULD
BE APPRECIATE. ALSO...PLEASE REPORT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN 3 INCHES.

NED