Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS YESTERDAY...SKIES CLEARED AND STRONG HEATING DEVELOPED PUSHING
CAPES INTO THE 3000 J/KG RANGE. EVEN WITH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE
DOWNDRAFT CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 800 J/KG. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALREADY IN PLACE. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SHORT TERM FLOODING AS WELL.

LIKELY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND
NORTHERN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
LATE TONIGHT AS ERNESTO APPROACHES. HOWEVER...BEST RAIN HOLDS OFF
UNTIL LATER. SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT WITH PRECIP...CLOUDS
AND DEW POINTS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP.

AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL DIRECT FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH SATURDAY. TROPICAL SYSTEM ERNESTO IS FORECAST
BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT THURSDAY
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...WHILE PRONOUNCES
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE
77 CORRIDOR. BY THURSDAY NIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...
SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG INTERSTATE 77 AND THE NORTH CAROLINA
BLUE RIDGE...WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF WILL BE CARRIED AS WELL. BY
FRIDAY ONLY CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF ERNESTO. THIS FLOW CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...POPS AND QPF WILL BE RATHER
LOW.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT QPF WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN EARLIER
ESTIMATES DUE TO THE TRACK OF ERNESTO BEING A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN
YESTERDAY. EVEN SO...TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN IS A GOOD BET EAST
OF INTERSTATE 77...AND AN OUTLOOK STATEMENT WILL BE REISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON STATING SUCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE
OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. A PAIR OF
WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE EXTENDED
FOREACST...ONE THAT MOVES TO THE COAST PLAIN BEFORE UNDERGOING
FRONTOLYSIS AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THESE
SYSTEMS...WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW OVER THRE AREA ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MIDWEST LOW...AND LOW LEVEL CONVEGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARIES...
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED ROUND THE CLOCK FOR MUCH OF PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL MEANDER EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL AS THE FRONTS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS YESTERDAY...RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONGOING. HAVE VCTS AND
LOW VFR CIGS AT ALL SITES AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE CELLS AFFECT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. STRENGTH OF
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD ERNESTO. ALL LOCATIONS HAVE A PERIOD
OF IFR AROUND SUNRISE...THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS KAVL WHERE IFR CIGS LINGER. BEST WINDS DEVELOP OUTSIDE
OF THE 18Z TAF TIME WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT/RWH
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
540 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-310945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
540 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT. A FEW OF STORMS MAY RESULT IN A QUICK INCH OR
MORE OF RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM 2 INCHES OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TO 2-3 INCHES AND AREAS OF 4 INCHES ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 77. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESFGSP)
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER REPORTS OF FLOODING OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DAMAGE WOULD
BE APPRECIATE. ALSO...PLEASE REPORT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN 3 INCHES.

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
433 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S UNION               34.69N 81.62W
08/30/2006                   UNION              SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            POWER LINES DOWN AT 3890 WHITIRE HWY.

&&

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
440 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     UNION                   34.72N 81.62W
08/30/2006                   UNION              SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN ON BROOKSIDE DRIVE.

&&

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
440 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

NCZ502-302145-
GREATER CALDWELL-
440 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CALDWELL COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM
EDT...

AT 433 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE RHODHISS...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF
LENOIR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

NCZ072-302130-
CABARRUS-
447 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING CABARRUS COUNTY...

AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNT PLEASANT...OR 5 MILES EAST OF
CONCORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

GMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
451 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

NCZ057-302145-
ROWAN-
451 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN ROWAN COUNTY THROUGH 6 PM
EDT...

AT 446 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MUCH OF SOUTHERN ROWAN COUNTY.

THROUGH 6 PM...THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR ROCKWELL...
CHINA GROVE...AND GRANITE QUARRY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...FREQUENT TO
CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS PEA SIZE
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
526 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

NCZ072-302230-
CABARRUS-
526 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CABARRUS COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 520 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM KANNAPOLIS TO CONCORD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES.

LANE