Severe Thunderstorm Warning 402, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
309 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING UP AGAIN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUC MATCHES UP BETTER WITH THE WRF THAN WITH
THE GFS IN THAT IT STRENGTHENS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS RATHER THAN OVER WESTERN TN. THIS COUPLED WITH A
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DRIFT INTO THE FOOTHILLS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SB-CAPE VALUES ON LAPS SOUNDINGS IN THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND THE NC FOOTHILLS ARE AROUND 2500...SO THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AROUND. THERE WILL BE BOTH A SEVERE
AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THESE
STORMS. WON/T KNOW UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE ZONE ISSUANCE TIME...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO CARRY AN AREA OF NUMEROUS TSTMS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS INTO THE LEE.

BY LATE TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE...LEAVING MAINLY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. I DON/T THINK WE SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS CORFIDI VECTORS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE WEST OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE NOCTURNAL MCS
ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.

FOLLOWED A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM ON WED WHICH IS FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. I DON/T THINK IT WILL REALLY MATTER FROM A
SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE AS LLVL THETA-E RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE INTO THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY BEEN
DEVELOPING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SFC FRONT...ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS WILL PUT THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS IN AN OPTIMAL AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER WED. AS
A RESULT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND A GOOD SCATTERING OF SEVERE STORMS AGAIN WED.

WITH DECENT ENOUGH STEERING FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT
NUMEROUS TSTMS TO MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND SPREAD INTO THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BASED ON THIS...HAVE SPREAD LIKELY
POPS TO I-85. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT ENUF AGREEMENT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RESPECT TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF MOIST
FRONTAL BAND AND UPPER SUPPORT...TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOLID CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ON
THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING DEEP LAYERED FORCING WILL BE SHIFTING OFF
TO THE EAST QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH EVEN THE SLOWER
GFS SOLUTION DIMINISHING FRONTAL BAND MOISTURE OVER THE PIEDMONT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND
AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON IN SETTLING A DRIER AND
COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A CONTINUED
PCPN FREE FCST WILL REMAIN AS WELL FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH WILL BE LESS AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING MAX TEMPS AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT ENUF AGREEMENT IN SLOWING HEIGHT RISES
ACRS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL PLAN ON DRIFTING TEMPS AND POPS BACK
TOWARD CLIMO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER IN THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE A TEMPO GROUP AT KAVL THROUGH 20 UTC...AND CB/S
IN THE TAF WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ALSO HAVE CB/S IN AT ALL
OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KCLT BEGINNING MID AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WHICH COULD HAVE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FOG AND HAZE HAVE BEEN INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS...AND HAVE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR AT ALL SITES LATER
TONIGHT...WITH A FEW SITES HAVING A BRIEFER PERIOD OF IFR FOG.
HOPEFULLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WL KEEP VSBYS FROM FALLING MUCH LOWER
THAN THAT. TSTMS SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH 1800 UTC TOMORROW AT ALL
TAF SITES.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BPM/CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...BPM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-051000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
548 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL
TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

LANE

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