Severe Thunderstorm Warning 396, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
309 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING UP AGAIN IN THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUC MATCHES UP BETTER WITH THE WRF THAN WITH
THE GFS IN THAT IT STRENGTHENS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS RATHER THAN OVER WESTERN TN. THIS COUPLED WITH A
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DRIFT INTO THE FOOTHILLS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SB-CAPE VALUES ON LAPS SOUNDINGS IN THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND THE NC FOOTHILLS ARE AROUND 2500...SO THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AROUND. THERE WILL BE BOTH A SEVERE
AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THESE
STORMS. WON/T KNOW UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE ZONE ISSUANCE TIME...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO CARRY AN AREA OF NUMEROUS TSTMS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS INTO THE LEE.

BY LATE TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE...LEAVING MAINLY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. I DON/T THINK WE SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS CORFIDI VECTORS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE WEST OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE NOCTURNAL MCS
ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.

FOLLOWED A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM ON WED WHICH IS FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. I DON/T THINK IT WILL REALLY MATTER FROM A
SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE AS LLVL THETA-E RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE INTO THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY BEEN
DEVELOPING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SFC FRONT...ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS WILL PUT THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS IN AN OPTIMAL AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER WED. AS
A RESULT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND A GOOD SCATTERING OF SEVERE STORMS AGAIN WED.

WITH DECENT ENOUGH STEERING FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT
NUMEROUS TSTMS TO MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND SPREAD INTO THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BASED ON THIS...HAVE SPREAD LIKELY
POPS TO I-85. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT ENUF AGREEMENT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RESPECT TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF MOIST
FRONTAL BAND AND UPPER SUPPORT...TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOLID CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ON
THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING DEEP LAYERED FORCING WILL BE SHIFTING OFF
TO THE EAST QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH EVEN THE SLOWER
GFS SOLUTION DIMINISHING FRONTAL BAND MOISTURE OVER THE PIEDMONT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND
AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON IN SETTLING A DRIER AND
COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A CONTINUED
PCPN FREE FCST WILL REMAIN AS WELL FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH WILL BE LESS AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING MAX TEMPS AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT ENUF AGREEMENT IN SLOWING HEIGHT RISES
ACRS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL PLAN ON DRIFTING TEMPS AND POPS BACK
TOWARD CLIMO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER IN THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE A TEMPO GROUP AT KAVL THROUGH 20 UTC...AND CB/S
IN THE TAF WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ALSO HAVE CB/S IN AT ALL
OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KCLT BEGINNING MID AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WHICH COULD HAVE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30
KTS...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FOG AND HAZE HAVE BEEN INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS...AND HAVE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR AT ALL SITES LATER
TONIGHT...WITH A FEW SITES HAVING A BRIEFER PERIOD OF IFR FOG.
HOPEFULLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WL KEEP VSBYS FROM FALLING MUCH LOWER
THAN THAT. TSTMS SHOULD HOLD OFF THROUGH 1800 UTC TOMORROW AT ALL
TAF SITES.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BPM/CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...BPM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-051000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
548 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL
TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
102 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

NCZ052-041800-
HAYWOOD-
102 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

..THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER HAYWOOD COUNTY...

AT 12:45 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN
HAYWOOD COUNTY.

THESE STORMS WERE OVER THE HEADWATERS OF THE BIG CREEK BASIN.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...
AS HOURLY RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON
CREEKS IN THE AREA TO INCLUDE BIG...JOHN MUCK AND MOUSE
CREEKS. FLOODING OF LOW SPOTS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...
PARTICULARLY IN CRESTMONT AND WATERVILLE. PERSONS CAMPING OR HIKING
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD ALSO WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE MUD SLIDES IN
THESE AREAS.

TANNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

NCZ052-053-041845-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING HAYWOOD AND NORTHERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES...

AT 133 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF
LEICESTER TO CANTON TO LAKE JUNALUSKA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARSHALL TO 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WAYNESVILLE TO WAYNESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CANTON BY 150 PM EDT.
  LEICESTER BY 155 PM EDT.
  WEAVERVILLE BY 220 PM EDT.
  WOODFIN BY 225 PM EDT.
  BARNARDSVILLE BY 235 PM EDT.
  ASHEVILLE BY 240 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

NCZ051-041900-
SWAIN-
147 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

..THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER SWAIN COUNTY...

AT 1:30 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTH
EASTERN PART OF SWAIN COUNTY.

THESE STORMS WERE OVER THE HEADWATERS OF RAVEN AND STRAIGHT
FORKS. THESE FORKS JOIN TOGETHER AND FLOW THROUGH THE CHEROKEE
INDIAN RESERVATION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS HOURLY RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON
CREEKS IN THE AREA. FLOODING OF LOW SPOTS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...PARTICULARLY IN CHEROKEE. PERSONS CAMPING OR HIKING IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD ALSO WATCH OUT FOR POSSIBLE MUD SLIDES IN THESE
AREAS.

TANNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

NCZ064-SCZ001-041930-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
237 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING OCONEE AND TRANSYLVANIA
COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF LAKE JOCASSEE...

AT 233 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF LAKE TOXAWAY...OR 18 MILES NORTH
OF WALHALLA...AND 2 MILES NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE JOCASSEE
ALONG THE OCONEE AND TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY BORDER...DRIFTING SOUTH AT
LESS THAN 5 MPH.

THROUGH 330 PM...THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND WILL
NEAR THE WESTERN BORDER OF LAKE JOCASSEE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
ALSO EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS UNDER THE
THUNDERSTORM ITSELF.

44

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