Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Green Bay, WI

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 040140
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
840 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

WIC075-083-040150-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-061004T0215Z/
MARINETTE WI-OCONTO WI-
840 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR OCONTO AND SOUTHERN MARINETTE 
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.

HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4520 8850 4489 8845 4487 8822 4469 8822
      4470 8774 4517 8767

$$

KIECKBUSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
500 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR KEWAUNEE AND
MANITOWOC COUNTIES.  MTW DOWN TO 300 FEET AT 430 PM.

TH

.DISCUSSION BELOW ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE SVR
TSTM POTENTIAL THIS EVG...PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
AND WINDS ASSOC WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHERN MN SEWD
INTO NE IOWA...THEN EAST ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER. LOW PRESSURE WAS
SITUATED IN SE SD...WITH THE PRESSURE FALL PATTERN SUGGESTING AN
EASTWARD MOVMT ALONG THE SOUTHERN MN BORDER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MESO CHARTS SHOW BEST CAPE (AROUND 2500 J/KG) NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WELL TO OUR SW...WITH MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG AND A STG CAP
OVER C/EC WI ATTM. OVERALL...GIVEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO OUR SW...AND THE STG CAP IN PLACE OVER GRB CWA...
FEEL THAT TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVG.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ELEVATED STORMS WITH SVR HAIL POTENTIAL OVER
PARTS OF THE FA THIS EVG...ESP OVER C WI. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE MOVMT OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS
ASSESSMENT IS CORRECT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SPC HAS ACTUALLY MOVED
THE MDT RISK AREA FARTHER NE INTO OUR CWA...INCLUDING PLACING A 15%
CHANCE OF TORNADOES IN PARTS OF CNTRL WI.

HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS EXPECTED. POPS WILL DECREASE FROM NW TO SE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PRECIP ENDING ACROSS EC WI WEDS MORNING.

THE NEXT CHALLENGE IS WHAT TO DO WITH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO
40-45 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. THIS...
COMBINED WITH STG CAA AND INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE SUGGESTS
THAT A GALE WARNING IS NEEDED. NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH.

VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVER CNTRL LK MICH...
AND STARTING TO CREEP ONSHORE IN MTW/KEW COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED SOME
FOG TO THE MARINE ZONES AND THE LKSHR COUNTIES FOR THIS EVG.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY
TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PASS TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. SURFACE FLOW
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST SO AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORE ARE LIKELY TO
HAVE MORE CLOUDS AROUND AS COOLER AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. FARTHER INLAND...WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY
WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 30S. KEPT
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS FLOW CONTINUES OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. WARM ADVECTION AND A TIGHTER GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER
LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...BUT DID NOT PUSH BACK THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT. WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES.
HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING
AS THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM FOR MANITOWOC AND KEWAUNEE COUNTIES.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
515 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-041100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
515 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TOMAHAWK TO LAKEWOOD TO MARINETTE. LARGE HAIL UP
TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY
THE EASTERN FOX VALLEY THIS EVENING. VISIBILITY WILL BE NEAR ZERO IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE LAKE.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY
GUST OVER 40 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF DOOR COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-041100-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
515 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF STURGEON BAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

AREAS OF DENSE MARINE FOG WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BOATERS WILL ENCOUNTER NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF ALGOMA.

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MARINE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REACH 30 KNOTS...WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

KIECKBUSCH
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY