Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Green Bay, WI

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 040024
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
723 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

WIC078-083-040115-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-061004T0115Z/
MENOMINEE WI-OCONTO WI-
723 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR OCONTO AND MENOMINEE COUNTIES...

AT 721 PM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.  THIS 
STORM WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KESHENA...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF 
SHAWANO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS 
MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST MENOMINEE COUNTY...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  HAYES...BREED...UNDERHILL...SURING...GILLETT...HICKORY CORNERS...
  OCONTO FALLS...SPRUCE AND KLONDIKE

HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...MOVE INSIDE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK
THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4511 8898 4496 8896 4497 8872 4486 8870
      4488 8802 4513 8821

$$
KIECKBUSCH

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 040036
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
736 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

WIC078-083-040115-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-061004T0115Z/
MENOMINEE WI-OCONTO WI-
736 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR OCONTO AND MENOMINEE COUNTIES...

AT 734 PM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
UNDERHILL...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHAWANO...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  SURING...GILLETT...HICKORY CORNERS...OCONTO FALLS...KLONDIKE...
  SPRUCE AND STILES

HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...MOVE INSIDE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK
THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4511 8898 4496 8896 4497 8872 4486 8870
      4486 8802 4513 8821

$$

KIECKBUSCH

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 040045
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
744 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

WIC078-083-040115-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-061004T0115Z/
MENOMINEE WI-OCONTO WI-
744 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR OCONTO AND MENOMINEE COUNTIES...

AT 742 PM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR UNDERHILL...OR ABOUT 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
SHAWANO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
LOCATED NEAR OCONTO FALLS AND 3 MILES EAST OF NEOPIT.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  GILLETT...HICKORY CORNERS...OCONTO FALLS...KLONDIKE...SPRUCE AND
  STILES

HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...MOVE INSIDE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK
THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4511 8898 4496 8896 4497 8872 4486 8870
      4486 8802 4513 8821

$$

KIECKBUSCH

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 040056
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
755 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

WIC078-083-040115-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-061004T0115Z/
MENOMINEE WI-OCONTO WI-
755 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR OCONTO AND MENOMINEE COUNTIES...

AT 751 PM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.  THIS 
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GILLETT...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
SHAWANO. THE THIS STORM WAS WAS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  OCONTO FALLS...KESHENA...SURING...SPRUCE...OCONTO...NEOPIT...
  LENA...KLONDIKE...HICKORY CORNERS...HAYES...GILLETT AND BREED

LAT...LON 4511 8898 4496 8896 4497 8872 4486 8870
      4487 8821 4473 8821 4474 8764 4513 8821

$$

KIECKBUSCH

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 040110
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
805 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

WIC078-083-040115-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-061004T0115Z/
MENOMINEE WI-OCONTO WI-
809 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR OCONTO AND MENOMINEE COUNTIES...

AT 805 PM...DOPPLER RADAR AND SPOTTERS CONTINUED TO INDICATE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO QUARTER 
SIZE. A CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS LOCATED FROM OCONTO FALLS TO OCONTO. 
ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED IN FAR NORTHEAST MENOMINEE 
COUNTY. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE WAS REPORTED IN AT COUNTY M AND HIGHWAY 55 
AT 750 PM. THREE-QUARTER INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED AT GILLETT AT 755 PM.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  OCONTO FALLS...KESHENA...SURING...SPRUCE...OCONTO...LENA...
  KLONDIKE...HICKORY CORNERS...HAYES...GILLETT AND BREED

LAT...LON 4511 8898 4496 8896 4497 8872 4486 8870
      4487 8821 4473 8821 4474 8764 4513 8821

$$

KIECKBUSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
500 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR KEWAUNEE AND
MANITOWOC COUNTIES.  MTW DOWN TO 300 FEET AT 430 PM.

TH

.DISCUSSION BELOW ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE SVR
TSTM POTENTIAL THIS EVG...PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
AND WINDS ASSOC WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHERN MN SEWD
INTO NE IOWA...THEN EAST ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER. LOW PRESSURE WAS
SITUATED IN SE SD...WITH THE PRESSURE FALL PATTERN SUGGESTING AN
EASTWARD MOVMT ALONG THE SOUTHERN MN BORDER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MESO CHARTS SHOW BEST CAPE (AROUND 2500 J/KG) NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WELL TO OUR SW...WITH MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG AND A STG CAP
OVER C/EC WI ATTM. OVERALL...GIVEN THE BEST COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO OUR SW...AND THE STG CAP IN PLACE OVER GRB CWA...
FEEL THAT TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVG.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ELEVATED STORMS WITH SVR HAIL POTENTIAL OVER
PARTS OF THE FA THIS EVG...ESP OVER C WI. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE MOVMT OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THIS
ASSESSMENT IS CORRECT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SPC HAS ACTUALLY MOVED
THE MDT RISK AREA FARTHER NE INTO OUR CWA...INCLUDING PLACING A 15%
CHANCE OF TORNADOES IN PARTS OF CNTRL WI.

HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS EXPECTED. POPS WILL DECREASE FROM NW TO SE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH PRECIP ENDING ACROSS EC WI WEDS MORNING.

THE NEXT CHALLENGE IS WHAT TO DO WITH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO
40-45 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. THIS...
COMBINED WITH STG CAA AND INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE SUGGESTS
THAT A GALE WARNING IS NEEDED. NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH.

VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVER CNTRL LK MICH...
AND STARTING TO CREEP ONSHORE IN MTW/KEW COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED SOME
FOG TO THE MARINE ZONES AND THE LKSHR COUNTIES FOR THIS EVG.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY
TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PASS TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE STATE. SURFACE FLOW
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST SO AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORE ARE LIKELY TO
HAVE MORE CLOUDS AROUND AS COOLER AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. FARTHER INLAND...WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY
WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 30S. KEPT
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS FLOW CONTINUES OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. WARM ADVECTION AND A TIGHTER GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER
LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...BUT DID NOT PUSH BACK THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT. WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES.
HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING
AS THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM FOR MANITOWOC AND KEWAUNEE COUNTIES.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
515 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-041100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
515 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TOMAHAWK TO LAKEWOOD TO MARINETTE. LARGE HAIL UP
TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY
THE EASTERN FOX VALLEY THIS EVENING. VISIBILITY WILL BE NEAR ZERO IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE LAKE.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY
GUST OVER 40 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF DOOR COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-041100-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
515 PM CDT TUE OCT 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF STURGEON BAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

AREAS OF DENSE MARINE FOG WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BOATERS WILL ENCOUNTER NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF ALGOMA.

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MARINE FORECAST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REACH 30 KNOTS...WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

KIECKBUSCH
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY