Wind Advisory 18, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Bell County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Falls County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1200 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

.UPDATE...
ELEVATED BOUNDARY OF SOME SORT FROM BROWNWOOD TO WAXAHACHIE APPEARS
TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-20.  THIS MAY BE ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF RICHER THETA-E AIR AT 850 AS RUC INDICATES. THIS
WARM/MOIST AIR IS OVERRUNNING THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH.
IN ADDITION TO OVERRUNNING...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH LARGE SCALE UPWARD FORCING IN DIFFLUENT REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS.  RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS MAIN DYNAMICS ARRIVE.

FOR THE UPDATE WE HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A LITTLE DUE TO PERSISTENT
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.  OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES TO POPS AND OTHER
ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS. TR/92

&&

.AVIATION...
TOO HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING OF CONVECTION BEYOND 6 HOURS...BUT HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR 2SM +TSRA 19-23Z FOR METROPLEX SITES DUE TO BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.  FOR
ACT...HAVE PUT TIMING AROUND MIDNIGHT INLINE WITH GFS BULLSEYE.
OTHERWISE CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES.
FURTHER AMENDMENTS LIKELY...BUT EXPECT DECENT CHANCE OF TS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z FOR ALL SITES AND HAVE PUT VCTS IN FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL BE ESE AND SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER 12Z WITH CIGS
LIFTING/SCATTERRING.

TR/92

&&

.DISCUSSION...
403 AM...
THE MODELS HAVE DONE A FAIRLY GOOD JOB WITH THIS SYSTEM...EVEN
WITH PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. NORMALLY...WE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH MULTI-DAY EVENTS LIKE THIS...BUT STORMS
HAVE BEEN MOVING QUICKLY ENOUGH TO NEGATE HUGE RAINFALL
TOTALS...AND RAIN ACTIVITY HAS EXTENDED ACROSS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
AREAS WITH EACH BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS HANDLED
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WELL (THE BEST INSTABILITIES AND SHEARS
HAVE REMAINED IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.)

GENERALLY...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN WELL BEHAVED...BRINGING BADLY
NEEDED RAINFALL TO MANY PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE OF THAT
WILL COME TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SO...WHAT COULD GO WRONG? ONE THING THAT COMES TO MIND IS THAT THE
STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
MOVING RIGHT ACROSS THE METROPLEX. THE ETA AND MESO-ETA SHOW THAT
A TIGHTLY WOUND BALL OF HIGH VALUES OF STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
(ROTATION POTENTIAL FOR STORMS) AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES
THE SURFACE LOWS TRACK.

MOST LIKELY THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE LIFTING SURFACE AIR PARCELS
INTO THIS AIR MASS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT OR LATER. THUS...STORMS
PROBABLY WONT REALIZE SUCH LARGE VALUES OF STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY. FURTHERMORE...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD
VARIOUS OUTFLOWS AROUND...DIMINISHING THE NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY.
BUT...WE WILL BE WATCHING AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG ITS TRACK
TONIGHT...JUST IN CASE.

COOLER AND AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE STORM SYSTEM...WITH
LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS A
BIT WEAKER ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.

WE HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS MONDAY AFTERNOON...PRIOR
TO ARRIVAL OF THE COOL FRONT. #26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  51  71  38 / 100  80  20   0
WACO, TX              65  51  74  38 /  80  80  20   0
PARIS, TX             50  45  63  37 / 100  80  50  10
DENTON, TX            56  47  67  35 / 100  80  20   0
MCKINNEY, TX          55  46  69  35 / 100  80  40   0
DALLAS, TX            59  51  72  39 / 100  80  20   0
TERRELL, TX           60  47  72  34 / 100  80  40   0
CORSICANA, TX         61  53  72  38 /  80  80  40   0
TEMPLE, TX            69  54  74  37 /  80  80  20   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1245 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201015-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1245 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
OF NORTH TEXAS BY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY. DUE TO THE COOL AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN THREATS
TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. BY
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
BY LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO BEING ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS SOUTHEAST OF A GREENVILLE...DALLAS...HILLSBORO...HAMILTON
LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35...AS A DRYLINE TROUGH PUNCHES RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF NORTH TEXAS. VERY GUSTY WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN
20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS UPWARDS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
DRYLINE BY MIDDAY AND AFTER. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE NEXT PERIOD
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOR HAIL
REPORTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY NEEDED OVER PARTICULARLY AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

05/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
857 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

TXZ142-143-156-157-191530-

CORYELL-HAMILTON-LAMPASAS-MILLS-
857 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 857 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SCALLORN IN SOUTHERN MILLS COUNTY AND
ANOTHER ONE BETWEEN HAMILTON AND JONESBORO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CASTOR...EVANT...HAMILTON...
JONESBORO...SCALLORN AND STAR.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
940 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

TXZ157-191615-

CORYELL-
940 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 940 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF COPPERAS COVE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COPPERAS COVE...FORT
GATES...GATESVILLE AND PIDCOKE.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL OF A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1112 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

TXZ141-191745-

COMANCHE-
1112 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1112 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF COMANCHE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COMANCHE AND GUSTINE.

BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.
FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING IF THIS STORM
APPROACHES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
122 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MANSFIELD               32.57N  97.12W
03/19/2006                   TARRANT            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL STREETS IN THE CITY FLOODED WITH A FEW
            BARRICADES. WALNUT CREEK ABOUT TO GO OUT OF ITS BANKS. 1
            HOME ALREADY BEING THREATENED BY THE FLOOD WATERS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
157 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ROCKWALL                32.92N  96.46W
03/19/2006                   ROCKWALL           TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN ROCKWALL CITY AND ROYSE CITY
            INCLUDING FLOODING OF BYPASSES OF INTERSTATE 30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
159 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ARLINGTON               32.69N  97.13W
03/19/2006                   TARRANT            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            STREET FLOODING IN ARLINGTON