Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
556 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

.AVIATION...
LVFR THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY MVFR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT WITH RA
AND TSRA EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOULD BE A BREAK THIS
MORNING....BUT MORE STORMS TO COME LATER. 80

&&

.DISCUSSION...
403 AM...
THE MODELS HAVE DONE A FAIRLY GOOD JOB WITH THIS SYSTEM...EVEN
WITH PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. NORMALLY...WE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH MULTI-DAY EVENTS LIKE THIS...BUT STORMS
HAVE BEEN MOVING QUICKLY ENOUGH TO NEGATE HUGE RAINFALL
TOTALS...AND RAIN ACTIVITY HAS EXTENDED ACROSS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
AREAS WITH EACH BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS HANDLED
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WELL (THE BEST INSTABILITIES AND SHEARS
HAVE REMAINED IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.)

GENERALLY...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN WELL BEHAVED...BRINGING BADLY
NEEDED RAINFALL TO MANY PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE OF THAT
WILL COME TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SO...WHAT COULD GO WRONG? ONE THING THAT COMES TO MIND IS THAT THE
STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY
MOVING RIGHT ACROSS THE METROPLEX. THE ETA AND MESO-ETA SHOW THAT
A TIGHTLY WOUND BALL OF HIGH VALUES OF STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
(ROTATION POTENTIAL FOR STORMS) AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES
THE SURFACE LOWS TRACK.

MOST LIKELY THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE LIFTING SURFACE AIR PARCELS
INTO THIS AIR MASS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT OR LATER. THUS...STORMS
PROBABLY WONT REALIZE SUCH LARGE VALUES OF STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY. FURTHERMORE...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD
VARIOUS OUTFLOWS AROUND...DIMINISHING THE NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY.
BUT...WE WILL BE WATCHING AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG ITS TRACK
TONIGHT...JUST IN CASE.

COOLER AND AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE STORM SYSTEM...WITH
LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS A
BIT WEAKER ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS.

WE HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS MONDAY AFTERNOON...PRIOR
TO ARRIVAL OF THE COOL FRONT. #26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  51  71  38 / 100  80  20   0
WACO, TX              65  51  74  38 /  80  80  20   0
PARIS, TX             50  45  63  37 / 100  80  50  10
DENTON, TX            56  47  67  35 / 100  80  20   0
MCKINNEY, TX          55  46  69  35 / 100  80  40   0
DALLAS, TX            59  51  72  39 / 100  80  20   0
TERRELL, TX           60  47  72  34 / 100  80  40   0
CORSICANA, TX         61  53  72  38 /  80  80  40   0
TEMPLE, TX            69  54  74  37 /  80  80  20   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
406 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201015-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
406 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE NEXT PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOR HAIL
REPORTS TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
857 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

TXZ142-143-156-157-191530-

CORYELL-HAMILTON-LAMPASAS-MILLS-
857 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 857 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SCALLORN IN SOUTHERN MILLS COUNTY AND
ANOTHER ONE BETWEEN HAMILTON AND JONESBORO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CASTOR...EVANT...HAMILTON...
JONESBORO...SCALLORN AND STAR.