Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
342 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WARM CONVEYOR BELT/ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED ELEVATED MCS THAT HAS
GIVEN MUCH OF N TX FLOODING RAINS TODAY...IS SLOWLY LIFTING NEWD
WITH SOME EMBEDDED HAILERS TOWARD SULPHUR SPRINGS/EMORY.
HOWEVER...SECOND ROUND ALREADY ON ITS WAY PER RADAR JUST WEST OF
D/FW...AS STRONG S/W SEEN OVER SE AZ/SW NM CONTINUES PUNCHING EWD
TOWARD W TX TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED (SEE
ADVISORY LINE BELOW).

MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON WHAT TO DO WITH SFC LOW/WARM FRONT OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE MORE REALISTIC ETA IN
THIS REGARD WITH SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE CWA AND TOWARD D/FW
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MONDAY. HAVE STAY GENERALLY CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY
ALL AREAS...WITH NW 1/2 SEEING BEST SHOT THIS EVENING...THEN AREAS
S OF I-20/E OF I-35 DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND LINGERING INTO THE
MORNING HRS MONDAY. UNTIL WARM FRONT MOVES NWD...LOOK FOR MAINLY
EMBEDDED/ELEVATED HAIL AS MAIN SEVERE RISK ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT AREAS SE OF LAMPASAS...HILLSBORO...GREENVILLE LINE
MAY COULD SEE SOME STORMS ROOTED AT THE SFC...SO DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS...IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN STAY COUPLED S OF THE WARM
FRONT...AN ISOLATED TORNADO (SEE SWODY1 FOR DETAILS).

BY MIDDAY MONDAY...S/W ROTATES UP INTO TX PANHANDLE/OK/SW KS WITH
DRYLINE VIGOROUSLY PUNCHING THROUGH AND RESULTING IN STRONG
DOWNSLOPING...MIXING AND VERY GUSTY W/SW WINDS. TEMPS WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING...ESPECIALLY S OF I-20 WILL WARM NICELY
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED MONDAY
AFTN ALONG/WEST OF I-35. REALLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME (SEE
ADVISORY LINE BELOW ONCE AGAIN). COLD FRONT MON NIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER/BREEZY CONDS TUES UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

LEFT LOW POP
FOR THURS ALONG RED RIVER AND NE ZONES...BUT DONT EXPECT MUCH
WITH S/W EJECTING WELL N OF OUR AREA AND MOISTURE FAIRLY SCANT. A
SECOND SURGE ARRIVES TO COOL US OFF AGAIN THURS/FRI...WITH A
WARMER...DRIER WEEKEND ON TAP NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  72  39  56 / 100  20   0   0
WACO, TX              51  76  41  61 / 100  20   0   0
PARIS, TX             48  69  38  52 / 100  40   0   0
DENTON, TX            47  70  37  55 / 100  20   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          48  71  38  54 / 100  30   0   0
DALLAS, TX            49  72  40  56 / 100  30   0   0
TERRELL, TX           49  73  40  56 / 100  30   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         51  74  42  60 / 100  30   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            54  78  42  61 / 100  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ093-
TXZ094-TXZ095-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ103-TXZ104-TXZ105-TXZ106-
TXZ107-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ121-TXZ122-
TXZ123-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133-TXZ134-TXZ141-TXZ142-
TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ145.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-
TXZ093-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ103-TXZ104-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-
TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133-TXZ134-TXZ141-
TXZ142-TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ145-TXZ156-TXZ157-TXZ158-TXZ159-TXZ160-
TXZ174.

&&

/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
400 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
THE MAIN THREATS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WILL BE HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.  SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IS WHERE A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE...TO
HILLSBORO...TO CANTON...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WATCH AREA MAY EXCEED 5 INCHES
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35...BEFORE A DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH AND CLEARS THINGS
OUT. VERY GUSTY WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT.

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1112 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

TXZ141-191745-

COMANCHE-
1112 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1112 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF COMANCHE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COMANCHE AND GUSTINE.

BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.
FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING IF THIS STORM
APPROACHES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
122 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MANSFIELD               32.57N  97.12W
03/19/2006                   TARRANT            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL STREETS IN THE CITY FLOODED WITH A FEW
            BARRICADES. WALNUT CREEK ABOUT TO GO OUT OF ITS BANKS. 1
            HOME ALREADY BEING THREATENED BY THE FLOOD WATERS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
157 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ROCKWALL                32.92N  96.46W
03/19/2006                   ROCKWALL           TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN ROCKWALL CITY AND ROYSE CITY
            INCLUDING FLOODING OF BYPASSES OF INTERSTATE 30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
159 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ARLINGTON               32.69N  97.13W
03/19/2006                   TARRANT            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            STREET FLOODING IN ARLINGTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
232 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WAXAHACHIE              32.41N  96.85W
03/19/2006                   ELLIS              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            CREEKS OUT OF BANKS AND RISING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
445 PM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MINERAL WELLS           32.82N  98.08W
03/19/2006                   PALO PINTO         TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER FLOWING OVER ROADS. WOULD GET BACK TO US ABOUT
            WHICH STATE HIGHWAYS HE SAW THESE CREEKS OVERFLOWING.