Tornado Warning 12, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WWUS54 KFWD 060220
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
918 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXC133-060245-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-060506T0245Z/
EASTLAND TX-
918 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL EASTLAND
COUNTY...

AT 918 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 
TORNADOES WAS LOCATED 17 MILES EAST OF CARBON MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL EASTERN EASTLAND COUNTY THROUGH 930 PM

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING 
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3233 9893 3247 9848 3231 9848 3228 9851
      3220 9868 3217 9884 3219 9888 3228 9889

$$

07/BB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
711 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO PUBLISH FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296...ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE THROUGH
JACK...PARKER...HOOD...SOMERVELL...BOSQUE...CORYELL TO LAMPASAS.
STRONG SUPERCELLS OUT IN THE ROLLING PLAINS MOVING TOWARDS
EASTLAND AS THIS IS WRITTEN.    84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006/

AVIATION UPDATE...TSTMS BUILDING THIS EVENING TO THE WEST AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  NO SIG CHANGES TO THE TAFS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LOWER CIGS TOWARD MORNING.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE WITH WIND FIELDS AND TIMING OF PRECIP...BUT CURRENTLY THINK
THAT TSTMS WILL CONGLOMERATE SOMETIME AFTER DARK TO THE WEST AND
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT TIMING SHOWS TEMPO 06-10Z AT DFW FOR
TSTM ARRIVAL.  THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD LATER.  PRECIP
SHOULD END SOMETIME DURING THE MID MORNING TOMORROW...AND WILL SHOW
IMPROVING CIGS/VSBY BY MID MORNING.  /DUNN/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER OVERNIGHT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM EVENT ON THE HORIZON. RIGHT NOW...THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING AROUND NORTH TEXAS THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. CUMULUS CAN BE SEEN
ON SATELLITE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS LINE BUT NO SHOWERS OR STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED YET. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA FIRST FOR
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE COUNTIES ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT
THOSE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AND HAVE BEEN OF NO
CONCERN AT THIS TIME.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP IN WEST
TEXAS AND THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MCS HAS BEEN THE TRICKY PART
BUT HAVE OPTED TO TAKE THE SOUTHERN ROUTE AND MOVE THE MAIN MCS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND INTO OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS ACROSS
ALL THE CWA TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS
ALL THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN THREATS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS IT APPEARS THE STORMS WILL BE
MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO CAUSE NO MORE THAN JUST LOCALIZED FLOODING.
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE STORMS WILL NOT REALLY GET GOING IN
NORTH TEXAS UNTIL AFTER 10 PM AND THEN SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WE WILL BEGIN TO
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND
THEN BEGIN TO INTRODUCE LOW POPS BEGINNING MONDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WITH THIS
FRONT AND HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS ON THIS SITUATION. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...HAVE GENERALLY GONE A DEGREE OR SO
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE
WARM LATELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
AND WILL SEE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AFTER THE FRONT.

82/JLD

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 AM SATURDAY FOR TXZ100-TXZ101-
TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ141-TXZ142-
TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ156-TXZ157.

&&

/84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-061100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
400 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO
DENTON TO SULPHUR SPRINGS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE EAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.  A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT THE GOLDTHWAITE...LAMPASAS...AND TEMPLE AREAS LATE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED NORTH. A SECOND
COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS...INCLUDING THE DALLAS FORT WORTH METROPLEX DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY...
RESULTING IN FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
AFTER 6 PM....AND ELSEWHERE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AFTER 11 PM.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
736 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ100-101-115-116-060100-

JACK-PALO PINTO-STEPHENS-YOUNG-
736 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS JACK...PALO
PINTO...STEPHENS...AND YOUNG COUNTIES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE INTO STEPHENS AND YOUNG COUNTIES BY 830 PM...AND WILLY LIKELY
CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO PALO PINTO AND JACK COUNTIES AFTER 9 PM.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS APPEAR LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF JACK...PALO
PINTO...STEPHENS...AND YOUNG COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING...AND
PEOPLE IN THE PATH SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AS
THESE DANGEROUS STORMS APPROACH.

07/BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
804 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     HAIL             5 SW CISCO              32.33N  99.04W
05/05/2006  E1.75 INCH       EASTLAND           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLFBALL-SIZE HAIL IN NIMROD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
854 PM CDT FRI MAY 05 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     TORNADO          7 W CARBON              32.27N  98.95W
05/05/2006                   EASTLAND           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PUBLIC REPORTED TORNADO WEST OF CARBON NEAR PLESANT
            HILL.