Flash Flood Warning 49, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
103 AM CDT SAT MAY 6 2006

.UPDATE...
HAVE SENT AN UPDATE TO ADD FREESTONE...LIMESTONE...LEON...AND
ROBERTSON COUNTIES TO TORNADO WATCH #297. HAVE ALSO CLEARED JACK
AND YOUNG COUNTIES FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #296 AND HAVE
CLEARED ELLIS...HOOD...JOHNSON...PALO PINTO...PARKER...AND
STEPHENS FROM TORNADO WATCH #297.

#58

&&

.AVIATION...
645 PM FRI MAY 5 2006
TSTMS BUILDING THIS EVENING TO THE WEST AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. NO SIG CHANGES TO THE TAFS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
LOWER CIGS TOWARD MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH WIND
FIELDS AND TIMING OF PRECIP...BUT CURRENTLY THINK THAT TSTMS WILL
CONGLOMERATE SOMETIME AFTER DARK TO THE WEST AND MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TIMING SHOWS TEMPO 06-10Z AT DFW FOR TSTM
ARRIVAL. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD LATER. PRECIP SHOULD
END SOMETIME DURING THE MID MORNING TOMORROW...AND WILL SHOW
IMPROVING CIGS/VSBY BY MID MORNING. /DUNN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
1153 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006
WILL TAKE THE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN WORDING OUT OF THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST HALF. REST OF PACKAGE
OKAY.

926 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006
SEVERE TSTM WATCH UPGRADED TO TORNADO AND EXTENDED SOUTHEAST.
UPDATE OUT ASAP.

711 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006
QUICK UPDATE TO PUBLISH FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296...ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE THROUGH
JACK...PARKER...HOOD...SOMERVELL...BOSQUE...CORYELL TO LAMPASAS.
STRONG SUPERCELLS OUT IN THE ROLLING PLAINS MOVING TOWARDS
EASTLAND AS THIS IS WRITTEN. 84

343 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER OVERNIGHT RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM EVENT ON THE HORIZON. RIGHT NOW...THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING AROUND NORTH TEXAS THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. CUMULUS CAN
BE SEEN ON SATELLITE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS LINE BUT NO SHOWERS OR
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED YET. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA FIRST FOR
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE COUNTIES ALONG THE RED
RIVER...BUT THOSE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AND
HAVE BEEN OF NO CONCERN AT THIS TIME.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP IN WEST
TEXAS AND THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MCS HAS BEEN THE TRICKY PART
BUT HAVE OPTED TO TAKE THE SOUTHERN ROUTE AND MOVE THE MAIN MCS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND INTO OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS ACROSS
ALL THE CWA TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS
ALL THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN THREATS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS IT APPEARS THE STORMS WILL BE
MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO CAUSE NO MORE THAN JUST LOCALIZED FLOODING.
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE STORMS WILL NOT REALLY GET GOING IN
NORTH TEXAS UNTIL AFTER 10 PM AND THEN SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP UP
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WE WILL BEGIN TO
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND
THEN BEGIN TO INTRODUCE LOW POPS BEGINNING MONDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SKIRTS JUST NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WITH THIS
FRONT AND HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS ON THIS SITUATION. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...HAVE GENERALLY GONE A DEGREE OR SO
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE
WARM LATELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
AND WILL SEE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AFTER THE FRONT.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  78  59  82 /  20   0  20  30
WACO, TX              60  82  61  86 /  20   0  10  30
PARIS, TX             56  72  55  77 /  30   0  10  30
DENTON, TX            55  76  57  80 /  20   0  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  76  57  80 /  20   0  20  30
DALLAS, TX            57  78  59  82 /  20   0  20  30
TERRELL, TX           57  78  57  81 /  30   0  10  30
CORSICANA, TX         57  79  59  84 /  20   0  10  30
TEMPLE, TX            60  83  63  87 /  20   0  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY FOR TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ132-
TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ145-TXZ147-TXZ156-TXZ157-TXZ158-
TXZ159-TXZ160-TXZ161-TXZ162-TXZ174-TXZ175.

&&

/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-061100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
400 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO
DENTON TO SULPHUR SPRINGS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE EAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.  A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT THE GOLDTHWAITE...LAMPASAS...AND TEMPLE AREAS LATE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED NORTH. A SECOND
COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS...INCLUDING THE DALLAS FORT WORTH METROPLEX DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY...
RESULTING IN FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN IN RECENT DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
AFTER 6 PM....AND ELSEWHERE IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AFTER 11 PM.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
147 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WACO                    31.57N  97.18W
05/06/2006                   MCLENNAN           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS TREES AND SIGNS BLOWN DOWN - POWER OUT
            THROUGHOUT WACO - NO KNOWN INJURIES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
159 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HARKER HEIGHTS          31.06N  97.65W
05/06/2006                   BELL               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HARKEN HEIGHTS. SEVERAL FLOODED STREETS CLOSED TO
            TRAFFIC.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
200 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KILLEEN                 31.10N  97.72W
05/06/2006                   BELL               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MAIN ROAD THROUGH KILLEEN HAS TWO FEET OF WATER OVER
            ROAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
222 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 AM     TSTM WND DMG     VALLEY MILLS            31.66N  97.47W
05/06/2006                   MCLENNAN           TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN IN VALLEY MILLS (POSSIBLE
            TORNADO)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
226 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TEMPLE                  31.10N  97.36W
05/06/2006                   BELL               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREETS FLOODED AND CLOSED IN NOLANVILLE AND TEMPLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
244 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TROY                    31.20N  97.31W
05/06/2006                   BELL               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            INTERSTATE 35 AT TROY SHUT DOWN DUE TO FLASH FLOODING